***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 13.6 14.5 16.0 -0.5 35.0 43.2 14.5 15.5 17.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.8 16.0 -0.3 39.0 44.5 14.3 15.4 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.1 15.9 16.5 -0.2 40.3 46.9 15.6 16.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.9 14.2 0.1 46.3 51.5 7.5 9.3 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.7 15.7 15.2 -0.1 41.2 48.7 15.4 17.2 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.5 13.2 -0.9 33.0 40.9 14.5 16.5 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.1 14.4 15.7 -0.6 35.0 41.7 14.1 15.7 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.3 14.1 -0.3 40.3 46.9 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 18.0 16.9 16.3 0.1 44.2 50.8 15.5 17.4 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.6 15.1 -0.2 40.7 47.8 14.8 16.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 18.1 15.9 15.1 -0.3 40.6 47.0 15.3 17.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.3 15.5 14.4 -0.4 38.2 45.3 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.9 14.2 -0.9 34.4 40.5 15.7 17.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.6 16.7 16.5 0.2 45.2 49.8 15.0 17.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.4 15.5 0.5 55.2 56.5 13.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 15.4 16.6 14.6 -0.5 37.2 44.2 16.3 17.9 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.6 15.7 -0.2 41.5 46.1 13.4 15.4 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.5 14.0 14.6 -0.4 38.9 45.5 13.8 15.7 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.9 15.1 16.4 -0.1 41.3 46.7 14.1 16.0 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 11.3 12.7 12.7 -0.5 36.6 44.0 12.3 13.8 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.6 16.2 16.6 0.0 41.9 49.5 15.3 17.1 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.3 16.2 0.1 45.0 49.8 14.1 16.0 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.6 16.7 0.1 44.5 49.3 14.4 16.0 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.1 16.8 16.1 -0.1 41.9 48.0 15.2 17.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.1 15.0 -0.3 38.0 46.6 13.9 15.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 14.5 15.5 13.3 -1.1 31.8 38.3 15.5 16.9 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 14.0 15.2 15.3 -0.7 32.2 41.9 15.2 15.9 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.3 14.9 0.3 49.3 53.3 14.2 15.4 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.4 14.0 -0.4 38.7 45.4 11.1 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.6 16.1 -0.4 36.3 43.5 14.1 15.4 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------