***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.3 3.8 5.8 -0.5 39.0 43.9 3.3 4.1 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.6 5.7 -0.2 42.7 48.1 3.0 3.9 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.0 5.4 5.6 -0.3 42.1 46.1 5.3 5.7 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 0.0 0.5 3.4 -0.2 45.0 47.9 -0.1 1.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.4 2.8 3.6 -0.2 43.4 46.9 2.6 3.1 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.8 2.0 1.8 -0.5 37.2 44.6 1.8 2.6 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.5 5.7 -0.2 43.1 47.8 3.3 3.7 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 2.3 -0.4 37.6 44.7 -1.8 -1.0 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.8 4.3 -0.2 43.6 46.5 3.6 4.0 4.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.4 3.0 -0.3 40.6 45.6 3.3 3.6 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.7 3.1 3.3 -0.3 41.1 45.7 2.6 3.4 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.3 2.8 -0.4 36.9 43.7 1.9 2.5 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 1.9 2.3 2.4 -0.5 36.7 43.1 2.3 2.8 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.4 0.0 47.6 50.1 3.7 4.4 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.6 4.0 -0.1 44.8 49.2 3.0 3.8 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.2 3.9 2.8 -0.4 40.5 45.1 3.5 4.1 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.9 5.7 -0.1 45.9 50.6 3.5 4.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.2 2.5 -0.3 42.0 46.2 2.1 2.4 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.7 5.7 -0.2 43.5 48.5 3.4 3.8 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 1.0 -0.5 38.1 44.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.4 5.2 -0.3 40.1 46.0 3.2 3.6 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.3 5.7 0.0 46.5 50.8 2.8 3.4 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.6 5.5 -0.1 46.7 49.6 3.3 3.7 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.2 4.1 -0.1 46.0 48.1 3.1 3.3 3.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.3 3.8 4.3 -0.3 39.3 45.6 3.6 3.9 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.3 2.4 2.6 -0.6 31.8 42.1 2.6 3.2 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.2 3.6 5.0 -0.4 39.0 44.8 3.5 4.0 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.3 2.1 3.6 -0.1 45.6 48.9 1.4 2.3 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.0 1.7 2.0 -0.3 42.1 46.4 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.2 3.8 5.8 -0.3 40.4 46.3 3.5 4.0 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------