***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.2 3.3 -0.7 41.8 43.0 1.9 2.8 4.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.1 3.0 -0.6 44.2 44.4 1.2 2.5 3.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.0 3.8 3.0 -0.6 43.5 44.2 3.2 4.4 5.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -2.7 -1.4 0.9 -0.4 41.6 44.3 -1.8 -0.4 0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 0.1 1.4 1.1 -0.5 43.2 44.3 0.7 1.9 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 37.2 44.6 -0.7 1.9 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 2.8 1.9 2.9 -0.7 43.5 43.8 1.5 2.1 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -3.8 -2.3 0.0 -0.4 43.9 45.7 -3.6 -1.9 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.0 2.2 1.8 -0.5 43.6 44.8 1.8 2.6 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.0 0.6 -0.4 44.9 45.4 0.4 2.7 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 0.1 1.3 1.0 -0.4 45.0 45.5 0.3 2.1 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.4 42.6 44.9 -0.6 1.4 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.6 38.9 43.5 -0.1 1.3 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 3.5 2.8 1.7 -0.4 48.4 46.3 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -0.2 1.5 1.5 -0.4 42.6 45.0 0.7 1.9 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.1 1.4 0.5 -0.5 41.4 44.4 0.9 3.0 3.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.8 2.9 -0.5 47.0 45.7 1.3 2.0 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 1.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 44.1 45.5 -0.7 1.0 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.0 2.9 -0.5 44.9 45.0 1.2 2.3 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -2.7 -1.3 -0.5 40.2 45.3 -2.8 -1.6 -0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.2 2.6 -0.5 43.2 44.4 1.3 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 2.7 1.9 2.8 -0.5 46.9 46.5 0.9 2.3 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.0 2.7 -0.4 46.2 46.0 1.5 2.0 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.6 1.5 -0.4 45.8 45.8 1.0 1.8 2.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.5 1.6 1.7 -0.5 42.8 44.2 0.8 2.9 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.8 38.4 42.9 -0.5 2.2 2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 2.5 2.5 -0.7 42.6 43.2 2.0 2.6 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.2 0.2 1.1 -0.4 41.4 44.8 -0.3 0.5 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 42.7 45.6 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.3 3.1 -0.7 42.6 43.7 1.5 2.6 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------