***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 1.6 2.4 4.7 -1.1 32.4 40.7 2.4 3.7 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.2 1.6 4.5 -0.9 32.6 41.0 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.1 4.4 -1.0 34.0 41.1 3.9 5.1 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 2.2 -0.9 36.3 41.7 -1.6 0.1 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 0.6 2.1 2.3 -1.0 37.2 41.0 1.8 2.6 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 0.4 0.6 0.8 -1.0 31.4 41.9 1.2 2.7 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.3 1.4 4.4 -1.0 31.2 41.1 1.9 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -2.9 1.3 -1.1 35.2 41.3 -3.3 -1.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.1 2.7 3.0 -1.1 33.8 40.7 2.7 3.9 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.0 1.8 -1.1 35.5 40.7 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 1.2 2.3 2.1 -1.0 37.3 41.4 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.7 1.0 1.8 -1.1 35.1 41.1 0.7 2.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 0.4 0.5 1.3 -1.2 30.1 39.8 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.4 3.1 -0.9 38.0 41.4 2.9 3.7 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.4 2.4 2.8 -0.8 34.0 42.7 2.3 3.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.3 1.7 -1.0 35.0 40.9 2.9 3.8 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.7 1.9 4.3 -0.9 32.9 41.3 1.9 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.5 0.9 1.3 -1.1 35.0 40.5 0.8 2.1 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 1.6 2.6 4.4 -0.9 34.5 41.2 2.2 3.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 0.0 -1.2 30.9 40.7 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.2 2.1 3.9 -1.1 32.5 40.7 2.2 3.5 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 1.3 1.7 4.3 -0.9 34.2 40.5 1.7 2.5 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 3.8 2.6 4.2 -0.9 36.9 41.4 2.5 3.1 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.0 2.6 2.9 -1.0 36.6 41.0 2.3 3.3 4.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.1 3.0 -1.0 34.6 40.9 2.1 3.2 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 0.6 1.2 1.5 -1.3 27.2 38.0 1.6 2.8 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.1 1.6 3.8 -1.1 33.3 40.5 1.6 3.2 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 0.1 0.5 2.4 -0.9 36.0 42.1 0.2 1.9 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.0 0.2 0.9 -1.1 34.2 41.2 0.0 1.4 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.4 1.9 4.5 -1.0 32.3 40.9 2.0 3.2 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------