***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.3 7.5 0.4 51.9 54.0 2.8 4.3 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 4.8 4.5 7.4 0.5 52.6 55.4 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.1 6.8 7.3 0.6 52.9 55.9 6.0 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.2 2.2 4.9 0.5 53.9 55.7 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.5 5.2 0.6 55.5 56.2 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.7 3.6 0.5 51.1 56.2 1.3 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.5 7.3 0.4 52.7 54.9 3.1 4.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.2 -0.1 4.1 0.5 53.0 55.3 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.0 6.0 0.7 57.9 56.5 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.3 4.7 0.6 55.6 56.0 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 3.8 4.1 4.9 0.6 55.3 56.3 2.2 3.2 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 3.2 2.7 4.5 0.4 53.0 54.5 1.3 2.4 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.1 4.0 0.3 50.8 54.4 1.5 3.1 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.4 6.2 0.9 54.9 59.1 4.3 5.1 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.9 5.3 0.5 55.4 56.7 3.2 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.4 4.4 0.5 53.0 55.8 3.1 4.2 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.1 4.9 7.3 0.6 52.9 56.3 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 3.2 4.4 0.7 55.3 56.3 1.5 2.5 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.8 7.4 0.6 53.7 56.6 3.2 4.7 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 0.1 -0.5 3.1 0.5 51.2 55.0 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.4 6.8 0.6 54.9 55.3 3.3 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.2 7.3 0.7 54.8 58.0 2.8 4.1 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.2 7.2 0.8 55.1 58.4 2.9 4.5 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.5 5.9 0.8 55.0 57.9 3.0 4.0 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.8 5.8 0.5 52.8 54.9 2.9 4.7 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.2 4.2 0.1 47.3 52.3 2.2 3.4 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.1 6.7 0.5 53.0 54.7 3.0 4.7 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.1 5.1 0.6 54.2 56.6 1.9 2.9 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.1 2.7 4.0 0.7 53.0 56.6 1.4 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.7 7.4 0.5 52.8 55.0 3.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------