***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.3 7.9 -0.4 35.9 41.9 4.2 5.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.1 8.2 0.2 48.6 52.0 4.3 5.4 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.8 6.1 7.8 -0.2 40.3 44.7 6.1 7.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 2.8 1.9 5.5 0.1 47.4 50.0 0.7 2.2 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 5.5 5.3 5.9 0.0 47.3 48.7 4.2 5.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.1 3.7 3.1 -0.7 37.6 38.2 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.9 8.2 0.3 50.9 52.8 4.4 5.7 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.1 4.0 -0.5 38.5 39.9 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 6.5 6.1 6.3 0.0 48.6 48.1 4.2 6.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.7 4.8 -0.2 43.5 44.4 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.3 5.1 -0.3 42.7 43.7 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.4 3.7 4.3 -0.6 38.4 39.6 3.5 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.4 4.0 -0.6 40.7 40.7 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 6.6 6.2 6.7 0.3 48.5 51.7 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 5.4 5.1 6.6 0.2 46.6 50.0 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 6.8 6.2 4.5 -0.4 43.0 43.1 5.5 6.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.7 8.3 0.6 58.7 57.8 4.3 5.7 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.4 4.1 -0.2 41.9 44.7 3.4 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.4 8.0 0.2 46.7 50.6 3.9 5.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.3 0.9 2.3 -0.6 36.0 38.5 0.6 3.0 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.6 7.4 -0.1 45.0 47.0 4.7 5.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.0 8.3 0.6 57.4 57.7 3.8 5.1 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.0 4.6 7.7 0.2 45.3 49.9 4.2 5.6 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.7 4.5 6.1 0.0 42.9 47.4 4.0 5.5 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.1 6.7 -0.3 39.1 42.9 4.8 5.7 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.3 4.3 -0.4 42.2 43.5 4.4 5.7 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.8 4.9 7.2 -0.3 40.0 43.6 4.1 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 4.4 4.2 5.9 0.2 48.3 50.9 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.0 2.7 3.4 -0.3 40.3 42.3 2.0 3.4 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.1 8.1 0.0 42.6 47.9 3.9 6.0 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------