***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 46.9 38.2 40.6 85.9 48.7 45.2 26.1 39.0 53.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 45.4 39.4 37.7 88.1 51.5 46.2 25.5 38.1 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.8 42.1 40.7 86.7 48.2 45.8 30.1 43.3 64.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 48.5 40.1 43.5 81.8 45.9 43.0 36.7 42.1 58.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 44.4 36.8 42.5 86.1 46.6 44.8 31.2 38.4 50.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 22.7 29.7 37.0 76.1 38.8 37.6 23.5 37.0 46.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 39.8 31.2 37.5 88.8 50.4 46.4 22.7 31.1 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 61.3 37.9 43.8 81.1 41.2 40.9 35.3 54.7 70.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 44.1 36.9 44.2 88.7 47.3 46.3 23.2 39.0 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 45.3 37.6 45.5 85.4 45.3 43.9 31.1 38.3 56.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 39.3 27.9 41.2 84.5 44.5 43.5 23.1 32.8 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 43.8 25.4 39.3 80.6 40.5 41.1 22.8 36.5 50.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 28.5 37.5 41.2 81.7 42.8 41.6 33.4 43.3 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 38.5 50.8 51.2 90.7 47.9 46.9 45.2 52.2 81.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 39.4 25.8 41.6 78.2 42.4 40.6 15.5 32.2 45.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 40.5 30.6 40.0 82.0 43.6 42.3 26.4 32.5 37.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 42.4 33.3 38.0 90.9 52.2 47.7 22.9 32.3 65.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 51.4 40.2 47.6 85.4 45.4 44.2 31.8 45.9 55.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 51.9 44.3 38.7 87.8 50.9 46.2 27.2 43.8 51.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 61.3 43.2 56.3 83.9 41.3 42.3 36.3 53.0 79.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 49.6 40.9 42.4 86.9 47.3 45.9 24.5 43.5 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 51.4 44.2 40.3 90.3 51.4 47.2 30.7 41.7 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 55.6 45.2 41.0 87.8 49.6 46.4 31.3 45.8 63.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 57.2 49.6 46.5 88.2 47.8 46.2 31.4 50.5 65.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 44.0 29.5 44.8 85.3 47.2 45.1 21.8 32.8 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 24.2 34.4 40.4 78.3 38.6 38.7 30.0 37.8 50.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 43.7 34.4 42.4 86.0 48.0 45.0 23.5 35.5 56.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 40.2 27.5 40.3 79.8 43.7 41.4 20.4 34.5 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 71.5 62.0 50.7 86.5 44.9 44.7 53.2 63.9 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 41.0 34.1 38.2 86.3 50.2 45.4 23.9 34.0 46.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------