***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.1 11.4 92.3 57.5 47.6 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.0 9.7 89.6 55.1 45.4 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.9 11.6 93.6 57.4 48.5 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.8 13.2 91.2 59.3 47.3 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.9 13.7 13.3 97.2 61.7 49.1 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.9 12.6 96.1 59.8 47.8 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.3 9.8 91.4 56.8 46.4 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.2 16.4 14.8 101.2 60.8 49.9 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.8 13.9 99.3 61.3 50.3 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.8 14.9 101.6 61.6 50.7 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.6 13.4 101.5 61.9 49.7 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.7 12.0 13.5 102.0 61.0 49.2 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.4 13.8 100.5 59.3 49.0 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.8 15.0 14.9 101.4 61.9 51.1 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.8 12.5 82.9 57.5 46.6 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.1 13.1 98.5 60.4 48.0 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.8 9.1 84.2 53.6 44.5 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.3 15.4 102.3 60.4 51.8 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.5 10.1 90.6 56.0 46.0 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 11.8 18.0 96.2 59.3 50.6 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.0 12.8 96.0 59.8 49.0 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.8 11.3 9.7 83.7 55.0 44.2 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.5 11.2 93.9 58.9 47.8 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.0 14.2 101.2 61.1 51.4 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.6 13.0 92.1 58.4 47.5 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.2 13.9 96.3 58.2 47.5 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.8 12.0 93.9 58.4 47.8 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.3 12.6 91.2 59.7 47.3 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.5 16.2 101.4 60.2 51.9 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.6 10.3 91.5 56.2 46.7 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------