***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.1 11.5 97.3 64.5 50.5 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.8 10.9 97.8 63.4 50.5 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.5 12.1 100.5 63.7 52.1 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 14.1 13.7 104.0 63.6 51.5 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.7 12.9 13.5 109.9 63.6 54.0 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.3 12.0 96.7 59.5 49.9 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.5 10.7 97.1 64.2 50.3 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.2 24.8 14.4 107.4 61.9 51.5 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.4 14.1 111.6 63.5 54.6 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.3 14.7 109.1 61.9 52.9 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.0 12.6 105.9 61.2 52.3 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 13.0 12.6 104.6 62.6 51.2 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.7 13.1 103.5 63.5 51.8 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.3 22.1 16.6 112.6 67.9 53.5 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.3 9.5 14.3 104.7 63.8 51.7 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.6 13.4 12.1 100.7 61.4 50.6 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.1 11.7 104.2 66.2 51.1 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 17.4 15.5 109.3 63.8 52.4 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 13.4 11.4 98.5 62.8 50.8 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.8 19.0 110.4 63.6 52.7 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.2 12.9 106.3 63.8 53.4 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.9 12.5 102.4 63.7 50.8 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.6 17.9 12.5 103.0 63.4 51.8 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.6 14.7 107.5 64.2 52.8 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.3 9.3 13.4 103.5 65.2 53.1 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.6 8.3 13.7 106.8 60.9 50.5 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.8 12.2 99.7 64.5 51.5 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.1 8.3 13.0 102.1 62.5 50.6 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.1 19.9 16.8 112.5 63.9 52.8 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.1 11.0 95.8 61.9 50.5 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------