***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.5 7.1 9.8 82.8 57.9 46.1 1.2 3.4 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 0.8 3.6 8.3 80.8 55.1 42.9 0.7 2.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.8 9.5 80.0 55.6 46.1 1.4 5.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.8 10.5 80.3 58.6 45.0 1.0 6.5 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.8 5.7 9.4 76.7 54.5 44.6 1.5 4.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.3 2.8 8.3 69.2 51.7 40.9 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.2 5.6 8.5 83.1 58.4 43.6 1.3 3.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.0 8.8 68.0 46.6 41.2 1.0 6.3 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.0 6.4 9.6 79.2 55.7 44.7 1.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.5 9.2 9.4 73.8 51.7 43.6 3.3 8.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.9 9.3 76.9 53.2 45.6 0.8 6.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.3 8.2 68.4 47.3 41.3 0.8 3.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.1 9.4 77.7 52.6 47.0 0.9 3.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.5 7.6 11.2 76.7 50.3 43.3 2.2 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.8 2.6 10.4 79.8 59.4 45.6 1.0 2.0 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 0.9 5.3 9.5 80.8 55.8 47.2 0.5 2.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.2 8.5 86.1 56.3 44.3 1.5 3.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.5 4.5 9.5 70.6 48.3 42.0 1.5 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.4 4.4 8.4 78.7 55.1 42.8 1.5 3.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.8 13.3 78.2 50.4 44.9 1.0 4.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.4 7.4 9.6 80.6 55.2 45.5 1.0 6.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 1.6 5.4 8.7 81.1 54.3 43.2 1.6 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.4 4.2 8.8 75.4 53.5 43.4 1.3 3.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.1 10.1 76.2 51.0 44.6 2.4 6.8 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.3 4.6 11.6 86.1 57.5 47.6 1.4 2.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 0.9 2.2 9.6 73.8 52.4 43.5 0.7 2.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.0 3.3 10.5 82.5 55.9 46.0 0.7 2.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.8 5.5 9.6 77.5 57.3 43.7 1.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 10.5 10.7 73.6 49.0 43.0 5.3 10.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.3 3.7 8.6 78.8 56.0 43.2 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------