***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.8 10.3 8.0 70.5 57.9 45.1 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.0 8.7 83.4 60.0 49.5 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.2 7.6 70.8 55.4 44.6 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.5 6.2 6.1 49.0 48.0 34.8 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.6 6.3 56.7 50.7 38.3 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 1.8 2.8 4.0 36.5 38.6 28.2 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.8 8.4 82.7 59.0 49.4 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.9 7.4 5.8 44.6 39.9 32.5 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.1 7.5 6.6 59.8 47.9 39.3 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 3.2 6.6 6.5 53.2 44.3 36.1 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.7 6.3 5.8 50.6 47.0 35.8 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.1 3.7 5.0 43.5 41.1 32.4 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.9 6.7 4.9 41.0 42.2 32.4 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.1 12.0 8.5 68.5 53.3 42.5 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.9 4.6 4.3 38.2 47.3 31.6 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.2 4.8 5.3 45.2 44.9 33.7 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.5 5.4 8.8 88.0 61.8 51.1 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 2.3 6.2 7.1 55.3 42.6 36.3 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.5 13.8 8.8 82.2 58.8 48.6 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 2.7 4.7 6.1 42.3 37.4 30.7 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.7 8.6 7.0 62.0 50.2 40.9 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.5 9.5 93.1 62.7 51.8 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.8 8.6 77.8 57.2 46.5 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.7 7.5 63.8 50.3 41.2 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.0 5.3 6.9 56.9 51.1 39.5 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.9 7.1 3.2 27.9 38.9 26.0 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.8 6.2 7.7 66.5 55.2 43.3 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.5 5.0 43.3 46.7 32.7 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 3.8 8.2 7.1 53.5 42.8 35.5 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.5 8.3 78.2 58.0 48.0 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------