***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.3 10.7 -0.6 41.3 45.6 8.7 12.0 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.4 10.5 -0.8 39.0 43.4 7.9 10.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.9 -0.7 40.7 44.5 9.7 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.7 8.6 -0.3 46.2 47.8 3.5 6.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.4 9.4 -0.6 43.8 45.8 9.6 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 9.2 11.0 8.8 -0.5 44.8 47.9 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.0 8.4 10.4 -0.8 38.5 43.8 8.1 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.1 8.9 -0.7 42.7 45.8 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.3 9.9 -0.7 42.4 45.3 10.4 12.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.5 9.7 9.4 -0.7 42.7 45.7 9.4 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.0 9.5 -0.7 42.9 45.5 9.9 12.6 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.9 10.3 9.3 -0.7 42.6 45.9 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.8 11.0 9.0 -0.6 42.7 46.9 10.0 12.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.2 -0.9 40.4 44.0 9.2 11.9 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 8.0 9.0 9.3 -0.3 44.8 48.4 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.9 9.3 -0.6 43.5 46.6 10.7 12.9 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.2 8.3 10.3 -0.7 39.4 44.0 8.0 9.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 8.9 9.3 -0.8 41.5 45.6 8.2 9.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.3 10.7 -0.8 39.0 43.4 8.7 10.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 8.4 7.7 -0.7 42.4 46.6 7.4 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.9 10.4 -0.7 43.0 45.3 9.6 12.3 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.2 10.4 -0.6 40.3 44.4 8.4 9.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 8.2 9.2 11.0 -0.8 39.2 43.4 8.9 10.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.3 11.3 10.1 -0.8 40.2 44.7 10.5 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.1 10.8 9.4 -0.5 44.2 46.6 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.5 9.0 -0.4 43.6 47.9 10.2 11.7 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.0 10.0 10.2 -0.5 42.6 46.1 9.2 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.4 9.8 9.0 -0.3 46.3 48.2 8.4 9.9 10.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.2 8.8 -0.8 41.7 45.6 6.8 8.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 8.5 8.5 10.5 -0.8 38.9 43.8 8.3 10.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------