***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 12.7 16.1 16.1 1.0 61.8 58.0 12.9 15.5 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.4 16.1 0.9 58.3 57.4 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.3 16.6 1.0 58.1 57.3 13.8 15.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.4 10.3 13.4 1.0 62.5 58.0 7.2 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.6 16.4 15.0 1.0 60.7 57.0 13.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.7 14.2 1.3 59.8 58.7 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.2 16.0 1.0 60.3 58.5 13.0 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.4 14.4 1.3 60.7 58.9 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 14.2 16.5 15.8 1.0 59.9 57.2 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.5 15.2 1.4 60.7 59.2 13.1 15.9 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.2 16.4 15.5 1.0 58.7 56.6 13.6 16.1 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.3 14.8 1.0 58.4 57.1 12.9 15.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 13.7 16.6 15.0 0.9 54.6 56.0 13.2 15.1 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.9 16.7 1.7 63.2 61.1 13.7 16.0 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 12.8 16.1 14.5 0.7 61.1 56.8 13.2 15.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 17.2 17.0 14.9 0.9 57.3 56.1 14.4 16.3 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.8 15.9 1.1 61.5 59.1 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.8 15.2 1.7 62.3 60.7 11.8 14.9 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.1 16.0 16.4 0.9 57.5 57.1 12.7 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.0 13.4 1.6 63.4 60.6 9.8 12.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 13.8 16.5 16.4 1.1 61.3 57.8 13.5 15.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.2 16.2 1.3 63.1 60.1 13.3 15.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.2 16.8 1.1 57.9 57.6 13.0 15.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.0 16.5 1.6 61.4 60.1 13.7 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 12.8 15.8 15.0 1.0 63.2 57.9 13.2 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.7 14.2 1.0 58.6 58.0 13.5 16.1 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 17.4 15.8 15.7 1.1 62.8 58.6 13.9 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.8 16.3 14.1 1.0 62.2 57.5 13.5 15.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.0 14.6 1.7 62.9 60.8 9.2 11.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 12.9 15.4 16.1 0.9 57.7 56.9 13.1 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------