***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 16.6 15.2 16.7 -0.4 40.9 42.5 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.2 14.5 16.4 -0.8 36.1 39.8 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 17.0 15.7 17.1 -0.5 39.7 41.5 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 9.9 9.6 14.5 0.5 50.1 51.6 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 17.2 16.4 15.8 -0.2 42.4 43.2 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 16.5 16.2 14.9 0.2 46.7 47.3 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.2 14.6 16.2 -0.8 36.3 39.9 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.7 7.6 14.7 -0.2 41.1 42.8 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 17.3 16.3 16.4 -0.5 39.6 40.9 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 16.7 15.8 15.6 -0.1 41.9 43.7 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 17.4 16.1 16.4 -0.3 40.5 42.2 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 16.7 15.7 15.1 -0.5 38.8 40.7 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 17.8 16.2 15.8 -0.7 37.8 38.8 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 17.2 16.0 17.0 0.0 43.1 45.0 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 15.7 15.3 16.0 -0.2 44.9 45.9 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 18.3 17.1 15.7 -0.4 39.7 41.4 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.7 14.4 16.0 -0.5 39.7 42.0 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 15.9 14.6 15.1 -0.1 40.1 42.8 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 16.6 14.2 16.7 -0.8 35.9 39.6 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 14.3 13.4 13.7 0.0 40.1 44.4 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 17.1 16.3 17.2 -0.3 41.5 42.7 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.0 16.5 -0.3 42.4 44.2 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 16.5 15.2 16.9 -0.7 36.7 39.9 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 17.1 16.3 16.7 -0.2 40.4 42.8 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 16.7 15.5 16.1 -0.1 44.3 45.1 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 17.1 16.3 14.4 -0.5 39.4 41.1 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 16.9 15.7 16.2 -0.4 40.7 42.4 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 16.0 15.7 15.4 0.3 48.3 49.9 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.4 11.5 14.6 -0.1 39.0 42.5 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.3 14.3 16.5 -0.8 36.6 39.6 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------