***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.3 6.8 0.0 46.6 50.3 3.5 4.3 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.0 3.8 6.3 0.0 45.7 50.1 3.2 4.1 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.8 6.7 0.0 45.2 50.4 5.5 6.0 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.3 1.1 4.3 0.1 51.0 52.2 0.0 1.1 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.3 5.0 0.1 50.9 52.7 2.8 3.2 3.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.7 2.8 0.1 52.0 52.0 1.9 2.7 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.8 6.3 0.0 47.2 50.5 3.5 3.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -1.1 3.1 0.1 49.6 52.1 -1.7 -1.1 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.0 4.9 0.0 47.4 50.5 3.7 4.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.8 3.7 0.1 49.4 52.7 3.4 3.8 4.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.6 4.4 0.1 48.6 52.1 2.8 3.7 4.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.6 3.7 0.1 50.4 51.8 2.1 2.5 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.1 3.4 0.1 52.5 51.7 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.0 4.5 4.8 0.1 46.2 51.0 4.0 4.5 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.9 5.2 -0.1 48.4 49.1 3.0 3.9 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.3 3.9 0.1 52.7 52.8 3.6 4.3 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.3 6.2 0.1 52.0 52.4 3.6 4.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.5 3.2 0.2 50.5 54.0 2.2 2.5 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 3.9 6.2 0.0 44.4 49.4 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.3 -0.1 2.0 0.2 48.5 52.1 -1.0 -0.1 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.8 6.1 0.1 47.3 51.1 3.4 3.9 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.6 6.2 0.1 51.4 51.9 2.9 3.6 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.4 3.8 6.1 -0.1 43.4 48.2 3.5 4.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.5 4.7 0.1 47.3 51.9 3.2 3.5 3.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.1 5.9 0.0 47.0 51.2 3.8 4.1 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.4 3.2 0.0 50.7 50.2 2.7 3.4 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.1 6.4 0.1 47.8 51.2 3.7 4.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.4 4.3 0.0 49.7 50.9 1.5 2.4 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.3 2.7 0.1 48.9 51.7 1.6 2.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.1 6.5 0.0 44.5 49.6 3.7 4.2 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------