***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.5 6.4 0.7 57.8 56.4 2.8 4.2 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.4 5.9 0.6 57.5 55.0 2.0 3.0 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.2 6.4 0.8 59.0 56.9 4.4 4.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.5 0.9 4.0 0.9 57.1 58.1 -1.3 0.0 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.8 4.5 1.0 58.3 58.5 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 2.6 3.6 2.8 1.0 59.3 59.7 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.7 5.8 0.5 56.8 54.4 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.2 0.4 2.9 1.0 60.8 59.2 -2.6 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.4 5.0 4.8 1.0 58.2 58.5 3.2 4.0 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.6 3.5 1.0 59.4 58.9 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.1 4.0 1.0 60.4 59.5 2.2 3.7 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.7 3.2 3.4 1.0 60.9 59.6 1.2 2.2 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 3.0 3.4 3.2 1.0 60.0 59.7 0.7 2.6 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.8 4.5 4.6 0.8 58.6 56.5 3.2 4.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.0 4.8 0.7 56.0 57.2 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.6 3.6 1.0 59.9 59.8 2.1 3.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.6 5.6 0.4 55.6 53.9 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.0 2.9 1.0 58.5 58.8 0.8 2.5 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.1 5.9 0.6 59.1 55.4 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 0.3 0.5 1.7 1.0 58.8 58.7 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.3 5.9 0.9 58.9 58.1 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.2 5.5 0.4 57.1 54.1 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.1 4.1 5.9 0.7 59.9 55.5 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.0 4.3 0.9 57.8 57.8 2.2 3.8 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.3 5.3 0.8 58.3 57.1 2.5 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.4 4.1 2.9 0.9 59.6 58.8 1.1 3.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.0 3.8 5.9 0.7 57.4 56.2 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.2 4.0 0.9 56.7 58.2 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.0 58.0 58.5 0.6 1.5 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.8 6.1 0.6 58.5 55.3 2.7 3.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------