***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.1 7.8 -0.8 36.2 37.5 5.1 5.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.8 4.8 7.5 -0.6 39.4 40.6 4.4 5.3 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.2 6.3 7.8 -0.9 33.6 35.4 6.3 7.3 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.9 1.4 5.2 -0.8 36.4 37.0 1.1 2.3 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.2 4.3 6.3 -0.9 33.8 34.4 4.2 5.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.1 3.5 3.4 -1.1 28.6 30.3 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 5.9 4.9 7.7 -0.5 40.3 42.5 4.6 5.5 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -0.8 -1.6 3.7 -1.2 26.6 29.3 -0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 4.5 4.2 5.5 -1.4 25.5 26.5 4.6 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 4.4 4.3 4.3 -1.2 27.0 29.7 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.9 4.0 5.4 -1.2 26.7 29.2 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.0 3.1 4.6 -1.2 26.1 29.5 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 3.3 4.2 4.4 -1.2 25.5 29.6 4.7 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 4.4 4.9 5.6 -1.0 30.6 33.9 4.9 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.4 4.6 6.3 -1.1 30.1 31.1 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.5 5.1 -1.0 30.3 32.7 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 5.7 5.3 7.7 0.0 47.0 48.5 4.4 5.5 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.6 4.1 -1.0 29.9 32.9 3.8 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 4.7 7.3 -0.8 36.3 37.3 4.4 5.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 -0.1 0.3 2.8 -1.1 27.4 30.2 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.3 4.7 7.0 -1.0 30.7 32.4 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 5.5 4.4 7.8 -0.2 43.5 46.3 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.1 6.9 -1.1 31.1 31.7 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.7 4.0 5.6 -1.1 29.7 32.6 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.4 7.3 -0.8 34.8 37.1 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.6 4.2 4.1 -1.3 25.2 27.3 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.6 7.7 -0.6 38.4 40.3 5.3 6.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.3 3.5 5.3 -1.0 32.3 33.4 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 1.9 1.8 3.2 -1.2 26.4 29.5 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.4 4.6 7.6 -0.8 36.6 37.5 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------