***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 46.5 52.4 50.8 122.1 65.7 59.5 26.1 39.0 53.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 45.7 45.4 44.5 107.6 61.5 54.4 25.5 38.1 49.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 49.0 65.3 52.4 126.6 68.6 62.0 30.1 43.3 64.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 48.5 64.5 58.3 124.5 68.0 60.8 36.7 42.1 58.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 58.1 60.8 63.8 141.9 73.2 67.3 31.2 38.4 50.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 49.7 56.3 69.8 149.2 80.3 70.7 23.5 37.0 46.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 39.4 35.5 45.0 109.0 59.8 55.0 22.7 31.1 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 74.0 79.6 67.7 138.2 73.5 67.3 35.3 54.7 70.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 56.5 48.5 61.5 137.9 71.2 65.2 23.2 39.0 46.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 60.9 63.2 67.4 139.6 73.9 67.2 31.1 38.3 56.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 53.9 63.9 61.9 146.7 78.0 69.3 23.1 32.8 47.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 56.8 65.5 61.5 143.7 76.5 68.8 22.8 36.5 50.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 57.2 65.2 66.2 148.5 80.1 70.8 33.4 43.3 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 63.4 80.3 59.3 116.7 65.3 60.3 45.2 52.2 81.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 53.5 64.8 70.4 141.2 79.7 68.2 15.5 32.2 45.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 55.1 65.9 62.4 146.7 79.0 69.6 26.4 32.5 37.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 42.4 35.5 41.5 102.8 57.0 52.0 22.9 32.3 65.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 62.4 68.2 71.2 133.8 74.5 66.2 31.8 45.9 55.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 52.2 50.0 45.5 109.9 62.3 55.5 27.2 43.8 51.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 60.5 79.4 81.2 121.3 67.1 61.7 36.3 53.0 79.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 61.9 58.5 55.4 133.0 70.1 63.3 24.5 43.5 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 26.7 52.9 44.0 104.4 58.1 53.2 30.7 41.7 59.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 54.7 56.9 49.0 114.8 63.2 57.7 31.3 45.8 63.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 70.5 72.1 62.7 130.7 74.2 64.6 31.4 50.5 65.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 62.2 56.2 60.6 128.1 70.8 63.0 21.8 32.8 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 54.1 60.5 65.7 146.6 77.6 70.6 30.0 37.8 50.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 43.0 57.0 55.0 119.9 66.4 59.6 23.5 35.5 56.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 50.8 56.2 64.5 137.7 75.7 66.3 20.4 34.5 44.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 85.8 82.0 72.7 125.6 70.1 63.4 53.2 63.9 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 41.0 40.7 47.4 113.9 61.9 57.3 23.9 34.0 46.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------