***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.2 9.4 106.1 66.2 52.4 3.4 6.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.0 9.4 116.1 66.4 53.3 3.5 8.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.1 14.9 8.9 102.7 63.7 50.9 3.6 8.4 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.7 9.7 90.9 57.7 46.0 4.9 8.1 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.8 9.4 90.8 57.7 49.0 3.8 9.7 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.6 10.1 87.4 61.0 50.2 2.6 7.3 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.4 13.6 9.6 117.7 65.3 54.5 3.7 8.1 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.0 9.4 84.0 57.3 49.5 6.7 12.8 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.5 9.3 89.7 57.9 48.4 2.3 9.8 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.6 9.7 9.6 87.1 57.1 49.1 1.3 7.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.8 8.6 86.4 56.6 49.2 0.8 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.9 8.3 81.7 57.5 49.1 3.8 7.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.9 9.5 9.2 84.6 56.1 49.6 3.5 7.8 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.6 14.0 9.6 88.6 56.4 49.3 4.7 9.7 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.1 11.3 102.4 63.3 51.0 1.4 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.6 8.8 86.3 57.9 49.7 2.3 7.9 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.0 18.9 9.8 125.3 67.7 56.0 3.1 5.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 7.6 10.2 86.2 54.1 49.3 3.9 6.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.2 9.1 112.9 66.9 53.1 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 11.0 12.4 84.7 55.2 49.2 2.9 10.0 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.9 8.8 91.2 59.7 48.5 3.4 9.2 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 17.9 10.5 126.0 70.7 57.2 2.3 7.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.3 12.3 8.9 104.4 64.8 52.6 4.8 7.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.5 10.6 9.4 90.0 57.3 50.0 2.8 9.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.7 10.8 103.4 61.5 50.9 2.9 4.9 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 9.2 85.9 60.1 50.5 3.6 10.1 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 10.3 10.7 109.5 66.3 52.5 3.0 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.9 10.0 92.6 61.2 48.4 1.6 5.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.1 13.8 10.8 85.1 53.0 49.2 7.8 13.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.5 13.8 9.3 112.8 67.5 52.7 3.9 8.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------