***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.0 10.1 97.9 64.3 49.3 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 11.3 10.1 97.1 60.7 46.5 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.2 10.8 103.0 61.2 49.0 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.6 12.9 10.6 89.2 61.0 44.4 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.8 11.9 10.9 96.9 61.0 51.2 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.3 12.0 13.8 107.0 69.1 54.6 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.4 10.0 96.7 62.0 47.6 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.9 18.4 12.2 93.4 56.0 51.2 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.3 11.0 99.4 58.2 50.3 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.6 12.1 96.6 57.2 50.9 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.8 10.4 96.4 59.1 51.2 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.4 10.7 94.3 57.7 52.2 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.4 13.1 11.9 100.8 63.8 53.8 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.5 14.3 12.0 92.1 54.3 47.6 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.3 12.4 13.9 104.8 68.6 50.7 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.5 13.8 11.0 100.6 64.1 53.7 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.2 9.0 87.5 60.1 45.1 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 11.1 13.3 95.3 55.3 49.9 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 13.0 10.2 96.9 59.6 46.7 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 10.0 15.0 85.3 52.0 47.1 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.5 10.1 98.0 60.2 48.0 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.5 9.4 88.9 58.9 45.4 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.9 10.5 96.5 54.7 47.7 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.8 9.3 12.1 97.8 56.9 49.0 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.5 11.1 94.8 60.1 50.0 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.7 11.7 99.9 65.5 53.2 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.7 10.6 93.3 61.4 48.5 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.0 9.6 12.3 99.0 66.2 49.1 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.9 18.0 13.8 90.1 52.3 48.3 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.0 12.1 10.5 101.1 61.9 48.2 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------