***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.6 6.1 8.7 80.6 55.4 43.9 1.2 3.4 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 0.9 3.7 8.3 75.9 55.7 43.2 0.7 2.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.6 9.1 82.0 54.5 44.5 1.4 5.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.8 8.6 70.9 54.7 41.5 1.0 6.5 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.5 7.9 10.9 92.0 58.9 49.4 1.5 4.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.1 14.2 113.8 63.3 54.7 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.6 5.4 8.5 79.3 55.8 46.1 1.3 3.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.3 11.9 89.6 56.7 48.0 1.0 6.3 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.6 10.3 87.0 56.5 46.3 1.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.1 11.6 89.9 55.9 47.2 3.3 8.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.3 8.7 10.6 96.1 60.4 49.4 0.8 6.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.6 10.8 97.1 61.0 51.5 0.8 3.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.9 12.6 107.9 63.1 53.5 0.9 3.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.7 10.1 74.0 50.5 42.0 2.2 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.3 13.1 99.6 62.9 53.3 1.0 2.0 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 4.1 6.5 11.6 104.5 62.4 53.7 0.5 2.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.8 6.2 8.1 79.2 57.5 44.4 1.5 3.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 9.4 12.3 86.3 55.1 46.6 1.5 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.4 4.3 8.3 74.7 54.2 42.2 1.5 3.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.6 14.6 75.4 49.7 44.3 1.0 4.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.4 9.0 83.5 57.6 43.0 1.0 6.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.6 8.4 75.4 55.0 42.7 1.6 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.9 8.7 76.5 52.7 43.1 1.3 3.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.3 10.5 83.1 53.9 45.2 2.4 6.8 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.1 4.5 11.1 87.2 55.6 48.9 1.4 2.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 4.4 5.3 11.5 97.5 62.7 51.9 0.7 2.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.1 3.0 10.1 82.0 54.0 45.9 0.7 2.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.7 5.9 11.1 90.8 60.2 49.2 1.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.7 10.6 12.8 79.9 50.0 44.8 5.3 10.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.7 8.7 78.7 53.7 45.4 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------