***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 20.2 33.9 22.5 194.8 83.7 73.6 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 11.4 13.9 16.7 140.5 73.9 66.4 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 19.4 27.8 23.7 211.8 86.0 76.5 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 18.6 29.1 29.4 240.5 86.9 75.6 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 20.2 36.6 32.6 282.4 93.3 82.1 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 12.5 28.9 31.7 322.1 92.7 84.0 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 10.4 11.2 16.9 140.4 74.2 67.4 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 22.1 46.5 34.2 297.1 93.0 83.0 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 16.5 35.9 30.9 273.5 93.1 80.7 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 20.3 44.8 34.1 288.2 93.1 82.5 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 19.0 35.4 32.3 309.0 93.4 82.4 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 11.9 36.9 31.7 311.4 93.9 83.0 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 15.9 37.5 32.6 316.6 94.8 84.5 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 25.1 45.3 27.6 207.9 86.2 78.1 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 15.8 35.0 32.1 259.6 88.3 76.2 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 16.1 32.0 31.0 301.4 94.1 82.6 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 4.0 11.3 14.6 121.5 70.6 62.7 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 15.0 43.4 35.4 269.8 94.4 83.8 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 16.5 20.6 17.9 153.4 76.3 68.0 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 19.8 45.5 39.2 253.4 90.7 82.3 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 19.2 44.1 27.6 251.2 90.4 78.0 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 8.9 17.2 15.8 129.9 72.0 63.5 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 21.4 34.7 20.8 176.6 81.2 71.9 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 21.2 51.8 30.6 246.4 91.7 81.9 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 20.2 34.4 27.5 222.0 84.4 78.1 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 18.8 28.0 33.4 311.7 90.3 85.3 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 18.8 26.8 23.6 190.3 82.3 74.0 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 14.5 31.5 31.1 271.5 90.0 78.3 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 23.1 48.6 35.3 253.8 91.0 82.6 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 14.5 19.8 18.9 159.1 78.0 69.5 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------