***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 11.9 12.3 12.4 -1.5 23.7 28.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 11.8 11.8 12.3 -1.5 24.6 27.5 12.4 13.0 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 12.8 12.3 12.4 -1.6 21.3 26.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 6.3 5.7 9.9 -1.7 20.6 25.5 6.7 7.9 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 12.5 12.8 10.6 -1.7 22.1 26.0 13.5 14.2 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 12.1 12.3 9.7 -1.7 22.6 28.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.3 -1.5 24.4 27.8 12.3 12.9 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 4.7 4.6 9.8 -1.6 22.2 27.7 5.3 6.0 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 13.1 13.4 11.4 -1.7 21.7 27.1 13.6 14.9 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.8 10.4 -1.7 20.7 26.9 13.3 14.2 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 12.9 13.2 10.5 -1.7 21.8 26.4 13.6 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 12.6 12.8 10.4 -1.6 22.9 27.5 13.6 14.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 12.8 13.0 10.3 -1.7 23.2 27.6 13.9 14.7 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 12.9 12.6 11.6 -1.7 21.9 27.0 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 11.7 11.4 10.5 -1.6 20.9 26.0 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 13.3 13.6 10.3 -1.7 21.2 26.7 14.5 15.2 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 11.2 11.0 12.0 -1.6 24.2 26.4 12.1 12.5 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 11.8 11.7 10.2 -1.7 19.8 27.9 12.5 12.8 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 12.0 11.9 12.5 -1.5 24.0 27.4 12.8 13.5 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 10.0 9.6 8.6 -1.5 22.7 30.4 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 12.7 12.8 11.9 -1.7 22.6 26.8 13.5 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 11.7 12.1 12.1 -1.6 24.7 26.7 12.3 13.1 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.5 -1.5 23.6 27.7 12.8 13.6 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 13.1 12.8 11.5 -1.7 19.3 26.9 13.9 14.5 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 11.5 12.0 10.9 -1.5 23.7 27.7 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.4 10.1 -1.5 23.3 28.5 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 12.3 12.4 11.8 -1.4 24.2 28.7 13.2 14.1 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 11.8 11.5 10.3 -1.7 18.6 25.2 12.3 13.0 14.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 9.2 8.7 9.7 -1.6 21.6 29.5 9.6 10.8 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.5 -1.5 24.1 27.7 12.6 13.2 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------