***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9.8 12.0 11.0 0.1 51.4 50.8 8.7 12.0 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 8.1 10.9 10.9 0.1 53.9 50.7 7.9 10.1 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.6 12.7 11.1 0.1 51.4 51.2 9.7 12.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.9 6.1 8.6 -0.2 48.6 47.6 3.5 6.1 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.6 13.0 9.3 0.1 53.1 50.2 9.6 12.8 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.3 8.6 0.3 50.2 52.5 9.3 11.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.7 11.3 10.8 0.0 53.1 50.7 8.1 10.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.9 5.3 8.9 0.6 58.8 55.4 2.7 4.3 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.4 13.6 10.1 0.2 56.3 51.6 10.4 12.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.5 13.0 9.5 0.4 57.5 53.7 9.4 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.7 13.2 9.3 0.3 55.2 52.4 9.9 12.6 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.9 9.4 0.5 58.6 54.9 10.1 12.4 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.4 13.0 9.1 0.4 55.4 54.2 10.0 12.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.4 10.6 0.5 54.4 54.1 9.2 11.9 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.1 8.6 -0.4 45.5 45.4 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.2 9.1 0.2 54.6 52.2 10.7 12.9 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 7.1 9.8 10.5 -0.1 52.2 49.7 8.0 9.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.7 9.5 0.7 56.2 55.1 8.2 9.9 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.5 11.3 11.1 0.1 53.9 51.3 8.7 10.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.8 7.9 0.8 55.8 57.3 7.4 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.1 13.0 10.5 0.1 54.4 50.7 9.6 12.3 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 7.7 9.9 10.7 0.0 52.7 50.5 8.4 9.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.4 10.8 11.3 0.3 53.3 52.5 8.9 10.0 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.2 14.0 10.5 0.5 54.7 53.6 10.5 12.5 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.1 11.5 9.4 0.0 53.6 49.6 8.6 11.2 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.8 9.0 0.5 52.9 54.4 10.2 11.7 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.9 13.0 10.3 0.1 53.8 51.1 9.2 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.9 8.7 -0.3 47.9 47.3 8.4 9.9 10.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.8 8.9 0.8 55.6 56.6 6.8 8.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.3 11.5 11.0 0.1 53.2 50.9 8.3 10.8 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------