***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 10.9 10.4 11.8 -1.1 35.9 38.2 10.4 13.0 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.6 11.8 -1.1 35.7 38.0 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.8 11.7 -1.2 35.4 37.8 11.4 13.3 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.2 3.9 9.3 -1.5 31.0 34.5 4.6 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.1 9.9 -1.4 32.9 36.4 11.1 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.2 9.1 -1.3 36.4 37.7 11.9 12.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.3 11.7 -1.1 37.5 38.4 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.6 4.6 9.4 -1.0 36.5 39.5 4.0 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 11.6 11.5 10.6 -1.3 34.7 37.2 11.3 14.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 11.6 11.4 10.0 -1.2 36.2 38.6 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.9 9.9 -1.3 33.9 37.5 11.8 13.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.4 10.0 -1.1 35.0 38.8 11.3 13.4 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 11.3 12.1 9.7 -1.2 34.2 38.5 11.7 13.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 11.2 11.7 11.0 -1.1 34.6 39.5 11.6 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 10.2 11.4 9.3 -1.5 29.5 33.3 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 11.6 12.3 9.6 -1.4 33.9 37.3 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.6 10.6 11.4 -1.2 33.4 36.8 10.5 12.4 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 10.7 10.8 9.9 -1.0 38.3 40.3 10.1 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.1 11.9 -1.1 34.9 38.2 11.0 12.9 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.1 8.5 -0.6 40.4 42.8 9.3 10.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 11.4 11.2 11.2 -1.3 34.5 37.3 11.1 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 10.0 11.4 11.5 -1.2 32.9 37.1 11.4 12.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 10.4 11.4 11.9 -1.1 34.1 38.6 11.2 12.9 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.0 12.0 11.0 -1.1 35.8 39.3 11.7 13.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.5 10.2 -1.2 33.2 37.6 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.0 12.5 9.8 -1.0 35.7 39.0 12.3 13.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 10.8 11.4 11.1 -1.0 35.4 38.8 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 10.6 11.2 9.4 -1.6 29.9 33.9 11.4 12.2 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.4 9.5 -0.8 39.3 41.9 8.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.4 11.8 -1.1 37.4 38.3 10.7 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------