***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 12.4 12.8 13.5 -1.6 32.7 34.5 12.9 15.5 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.3 13.5 -1.6 32.3 34.1 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 13.5 13.8 13.5 -1.7 32.0 34.1 13.8 15.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 5.4 5.9 11.2 -1.9 29.9 32.5 7.2 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 12.9 13.4 11.6 -2.0 30.4 33.1 13.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 12.2 12.1 10.5 -2.1 27.9 33.6 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 12.3 12.9 13.5 -1.6 30.5 34.1 13.0 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.1 6.7 10.7 -2.0 31.5 34.5 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 13.6 13.3 12.3 -1.9 32.0 33.8 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 13.1 13.0 11.4 -2.0 32.2 34.3 13.1 15.9 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 13.6 13.4 11.5 -2.0 30.3 33.3 13.6 16.1 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 12.5 12.7 11.3 -2.0 29.5 33.6 12.9 15.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 13.2 13.0 11.0 -2.1 28.6 32.9 13.2 15.1 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.2 13.7 12.7 -1.7 33.3 35.3 13.7 16.0 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 12.2 12.6 11.3 -1.7 28.0 32.0 13.2 15.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 14.1 14.2 11.2 -2.1 29.0 33.1 14.4 16.3 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 11.8 12.6 13.2 -1.6 31.2 33.6 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.6 11.8 11.3 -1.9 33.2 35.2 11.8 14.9 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 13.2 12.7 13.6 -1.6 33.1 34.5 12.7 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 10.3 9.7 9.4 -1.8 32.5 36.2 9.8 12.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.3 12.9 -1.8 31.1 33.8 13.5 15.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 13.0 13.3 13.3 -1.6 33.3 34.2 13.3 15.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.0 13.7 -1.6 33.1 35.0 13.0 15.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.7 12.6 -1.8 33.4 35.0 13.7 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 12.6 13.2 11.9 -1.6 30.7 34.1 13.2 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 12.6 12.5 11.0 -2.0 25.8 32.9 13.5 16.1 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 13.0 13.8 12.8 -1.5 32.3 34.8 13.9 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 11.8 12.7 11.3 -1.9 28.1 32.2 13.5 15.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.2 9.2 10.6 -1.8 32.8 36.2 9.2 11.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 12.8 13.1 13.6 -1.6 32.3 34.2 13.1 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------