***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 12.7 12.2 13.3 -3.2 14.9 17.2 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 13.4 13.1 13.2 -3.5 14.2 16.1 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 12.8 12.1 13.1 -3.6 13.0 16.0 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 6.1 5.7 10.7 -3.2 18.4 19.4 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 13.2 12.6 11.6 -3.7 12.2 16.0 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 13.3 12.1 10.6 -3.5 13.8 18.9 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 13.4 13.2 13.2 -3.3 14.1 16.7 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 5.6 3.0 10.1 -4.2 8.4 14.8 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 13.3 12.7 12.5 -3.6 12.6 16.0 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 13.1 12.3 10.9 -4.2 9.8 14.5 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 13.1 12.4 11.4 -3.9 11.4 15.0 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 13.1 11.4 10.9 -3.9 9.4 15.3 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 13.4 12.2 11.4 -3.9 10.1 16.1 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 12.8 12.0 11.9 -4.4 11.4 13.6 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 13.6 13.5 12.9 -2.5 21.7 23.2 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 14.2 13.3 11.5 -3.7 11.3 16.2 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 94 6 0 100 13.1 12.9 12.8 -3.5 15.2 16.4 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 12.2 11.5 10.2 -4.5 9.9 13.7 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 13.1 12.8 13.2 -3.6 14.1 16.0 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 10.1 7.6 8.6 -4.4 9.8 15.3 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 13.0 12.2 13.0 -3.6 13.0 16.2 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 13.6 13.4 12.8 -3.5 15.0 16.4 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 13.3 13.1 13.0 -3.7 14.3 15.8 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 12.7 12.0 11.8 -4.3 11.3 13.8 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 12.6 11.9 12.2 -3.2 15.6 18.3 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 13.7 13.2 10.8 -3.5 13.8 17.7 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 13.4 12.7 12.9 -3.2 14.9 17.7 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 13.1 12.9 11.7 -3.2 17.6 19.3 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 9.2 6.7 9.6 -4.5 10.3 14.4 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 13.2 12.8 13.3 -3.4 14.0 16.4 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------