***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 3.4 5.1 0.5 55.9 55.8 1.7 3.0 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.1 2.7 4.8 0.5 55.7 55.7 1.0 2.6 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.9 4.8 0.5 58.0 56.6 3.2 4.1 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -0.6 2.4 0.4 52.8 55.4 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 2.0 2.7 2.4 0.5 55.0 56.2 0.1 1.2 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 1.9 2.1 1.0 0.8 55.8 58.2 -0.8 1.5 3.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.8 3.2 4.8 0.4 56.7 54.9 1.0 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -1.6 1.5 1.0 57.8 59.0 -4.0 -2.4 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 1.0 3.2 3.1 0.6 54.3 56.8 1.1 2.8 3.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 0.6 3.0 2.0 0.8 56.1 57.7 0.1 1.9 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 0.2 2.4 2.2 0.7 55.2 56.6 0.0 1.9 3.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -0.7 1.6 2.2 0.9 58.6 58.6 -1.0 1.0 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 2.1 2.0 1.8 0.9 58.2 57.9 -0.3 1.6 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 3.4 3.7 3.3 0.8 62.7 57.7 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 2.4 2.3 3.0 0.4 53.6 56.1 1.2 2.0 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.3 1.9 0.7 56.2 56.8 0.8 3.0 4.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.7 4.6 0.5 54.4 55.3 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 1.2 1.3 1.7 0.9 58.5 58.4 -0.9 0.8 1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.4 4.8 0.6 58.8 56.5 0.9 2.7 3.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -0.8 0.3 1.1 57.7 59.4 -3.9 -1.3 -0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.1 3.1 4.2 0.5 56.0 56.5 1.1 2.6 3.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 0.6 2.9 4.7 0.5 55.6 56.1 0.6 1.8 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.1 3.7 4.6 0.6 62.4 57.3 0.8 2.3 3.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 2.7 2.1 3.1 0.8 60.6 57.9 0.3 1.4 2.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 0.8 2.9 3.6 0.4 55.9 55.7 0.9 1.9 3.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 0.0 2.8 1.9 0.9 58.9 58.9 -0.4 2.2 3.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.6 4.3 0.5 56.8 55.7 1.6 2.9 4.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.8 2.5 0.5 52.2 55.7 -0.3 0.7 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.1 59.5 59.1 -1.1 0.2 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.2 3.1 5.0 0.5 56.5 55.8 1.5 2.7 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------