***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.4 5.6 -0.6 38.9 43.4 2.8 4.2 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.4 2.6 5.3 -0.7 39.6 42.9 2.0 3.0 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.8 4.8 5.5 -0.5 42.3 44.7 4.4 4.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -1.2 3.1 -0.6 36.7 42.9 -1.3 0.0 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.4 3.1 -0.5 39.9 44.3 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 2.7 1.2 1.8 -0.2 41.1 46.8 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.3 5.1 -0.8 36.5 41.7 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.2 -2.1 2.2 0.0 41.5 49.1 -2.6 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.7 3.7 -0.4 39.8 44.9 3.2 4.0 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 4.6 3.4 2.7 -0.2 40.6 47.4 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 4.0 2.7 2.9 -0.3 40.6 46.1 2.2 3.7 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 2.6 1.7 2.9 -0.1 41.7 48.1 1.2 2.2 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 3.0 1.7 2.4 -0.3 42.0 46.5 0.7 2.6 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 4.8 3.9 4.0 -0.3 44.5 47.1 3.2 4.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.0 3.6 -0.7 35.9 41.4 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.3 3.3 2.6 -0.3 41.0 46.1 2.1 3.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.7 2.7 4.9 -0.8 37.2 41.5 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 1.4 2.4 -0.1 41.8 49.2 0.8 2.5 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.8 2.9 5.4 -0.5 41.2 44.2 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 0.3 -0.5 1.1 0.1 44.2 50.6 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.8 2.8 4.8 -0.5 40.6 44.2 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.5 2.4 5.0 -0.7 38.9 42.8 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.4 5.2 -0.4 42.8 45.8 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.3 3.9 -0.2 42.5 47.9 2.2 3.8 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.4 2.8 4.2 -0.5 37.4 43.5 2.5 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 3.4 1.7 2.6 -0.1 41.6 47.4 1.1 3.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.4 2.4 4.8 -0.6 37.5 43.3 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 0.2 1.4 3.1 -0.6 37.1 42.8 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.2 2.0 0.1 44.3 50.3 0.6 1.5 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.8 2.8 5.5 -0.7 39.9 43.3 2.7 3.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------