***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.6 3.2 6.8 -1.2 31.8 36.3 3.3 4.3 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.0 2.3 6.5 -1.2 30.6 36.3 2.6 4.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.4 5.6 6.6 -1.1 31.5 36.9 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -0.5 1.1 4.3 -1.0 34.3 38.0 1.0 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.1 4.3 -1.1 34.0 37.8 1.9 2.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 0.7 1.3 2.8 -1.0 31.5 40.2 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.0 2.9 6.4 -1.3 30.9 35.5 3.1 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -1.9 -1.7 3.1 -1.0 32.7 39.1 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.1 4.9 -1.1 32.8 37.6 3.1 4.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.5 2.5 3.7 -1.0 32.8 38.1 2.5 3.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.4 4.1 -0.9 35.6 39.1 2.2 3.4 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.9 3.9 -0.9 34.9 39.9 1.7 2.0 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.3 1.7 3.5 -0.9 33.8 40.3 1.6 2.5 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.5 3.6 5.1 -1.0 33.1 38.7 3.6 5.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.8 4.9 -0.8 34.4 40.1 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.3 3.7 -0.9 34.9 39.7 3.1 3.9 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.4 3.6 6.2 -1.3 31.1 36.3 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 1.0 1.2 3.4 -1.0 32.7 38.6 1.2 2.6 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.7 6.6 -1.1 30.7 37.2 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 1.8 -1.2 28.9 38.1 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.3 3.3 6.1 -1.1 34.3 37.0 3.1 4.1 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.4 6.2 -1.2 31.6 36.5 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.2 6.4 -1.0 32.0 38.5 2.3 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.3 2.9 4.9 -1.0 34.8 38.7 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.1 5.4 -1.0 34.8 37.4 3.0 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.5 3.6 -1.0 32.9 39.9 2.5 3.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.3 2.6 6.1 -1.2 33.1 36.7 2.6 4.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 0.9 1.6 4.3 -0.9 33.2 39.1 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.6 2.9 -1.0 31.5 39.2 2.0 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.9 2.9 6.7 -1.2 30.9 36.1 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------