***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.3 8.1 -0.5 43.1 41.1 5.1 5.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.0 4.8 7.5 -0.7 39.2 38.5 4.4 5.3 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.0 8.1 -0.3 45.2 44.1 6.3 7.3 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.9 4.0 6.2 0.5 62.6 57.7 1.1 2.3 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.7 6.8 0.4 59.8 56.9 4.2 5.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.5 5.3 1.0 67.5 63.7 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.9 7.4 -0.9 38.2 36.7 4.6 5.5 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.9 1.9 5.2 0.4 56.5 54.9 -0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 6.6 7.3 7.5 0.8 67.6 63.4 4.6 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.5 6.1 0.6 61.1 58.1 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.9 6.6 0.7 62.5 61.0 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.5 6.0 0.6 60.2 58.4 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.3 6.2 1.0 70.1 63.9 4.7 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.2 7.0 0.1 51.7 51.0 4.9 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.2 8.0 1.1 72.3 66.5 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 6.6 7.1 6.4 0.9 66.9 63.7 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.1 4.6 6.9 -0.9 36.0 36.1 4.4 5.5 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.0 5.3 0.3 56.7 53.4 3.8 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.1 7.7 -0.5 42.3 41.3 4.4 5.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.0 3.3 -0.2 46.6 46.6 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.1 5.9 8.1 0.1 53.1 51.2 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.1 7.2 -0.8 35.9 36.4 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.2 7.8 -0.2 47.2 46.3 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.5 5.9 6.9 0.3 54.9 53.1 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.9 7.5 -0.3 47.9 45.3 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.7 5.7 0.6 58.3 56.7 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.1 7.7 -0.4 45.1 43.0 5.3 6.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.8 6.8 0.8 67.5 62.9 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.0 4.6 0.2 53.9 52.4 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.4 4.8 7.8 -0.7 40.9 39.2 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------