***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 26.7 45.1 50.1 97.7 56.8 50.6 26.1 37.0 50.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 23.0 45.3 49.6 107.0 62.7 54.2 25.3 40.0 48.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 27.0 44.1 49.3 97.2 58.1 50.9 28.4 41.1 49.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 49.5 52.5 52.6 93.9 57.9 49.6 31.5 44.8 53.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 44.1 43.2 50.0 94.4 53.5 49.9 29.7 39.5 50.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 20.7 36.5 49.6 96.1 56.1 49.3 20.9 35.3 38.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.7 38.7 48.9 104.5 60.6 52.5 21.3 30.7 42.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 66.0 65.4 55.9 101.5 58.3 53.1 33.2 61.0 70.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 42.0 39.1 50.2 92.5 51.6 49.0 28.0 38.6 45.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 48.4 53.0 54.6 97.2 56.6 50.9 31.5 43.2 58.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 39.5 41.7 51.5 99.3 56.1 51.6 23.9 34.1 51.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 39.3 38.6 50.8 99.6 55.6 51.8 24.4 32.2 51.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 44.0 42.2 52.6 99.4 51.3 51.0 32.9 41.0 50.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 63.6 62.1 58.8 101.7 55.0 52.5 44.9 57.3 71.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 17.4 33.5 52.0 91.9 55.9 48.8 15.6 30.3 37.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 38.0 32.2 50.8 98.8 52.3 50.9 25.1 31.5 39.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.1 42.2 50.4 108.3 59.5 53.7 25.4 30.0 66.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 48.7 47.3 57.5 98.7 57.8 51.2 33.3 42.4 49.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 26.0 49.8 49.8 104.9 61.3 53.7 29.4 43.3 52.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 61.0 63.9 70.0 104.6 58.8 54.3 37.8 53.3 78.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 44.0 41.7 49.4 93.1 54.9 49.6 28.0 37.1 47.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 24.7 55.5 52.2 107.6 61.2 53.7 30.7 44.3 58.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.9 49.8 50.4 100.7 57.7 52.3 34.4 44.9 61.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 53.0 49.3 53.0 96.9 55.3 50.3 33.0 47.3 54.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 20.2 37.8 52.5 94.5 57.1 49.6 17.1 31.4 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 41.3 38.9 50.4 95.6 53.8 49.3 30.6 37.6 47.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 20.2 38.6 51.3 96.6 57.7 49.8 21.9 35.3 49.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 20.6 39.1 50.8 95.4 57.6 50.1 22.8 35.0 40.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 66.8 64.5 62.1 101.2 58.4 52.3 49.1 58.9 69.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.2 40.6 49.4 103.2 62.3 52.9 22.8 33.2 45.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------