***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.2 7.9 10.2 97.8 61.1 48.6 2.9 4.6 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.1 19.0 10.9 116.0 69.6 50.2 3.0 4.4 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.0 10.9 9.8 90.6 61.0 47.9 2.4 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.5 9.5 83.8 55.3 45.8 2.3 7.4 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.2 9.3 81.4 57.1 45.7 1.8 5.9 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.3 6.8 9.9 80.1 57.9 45.7 0.7 4.7 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.8 15.1 10.2 107.6 64.3 48.3 2.9 7.7 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.8 13.3 10.4 83.4 54.4 45.9 5.6 12.0 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.9 9.6 78.5 55.7 45.3 0.3 6.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.7 10.4 80.4 52.5 45.5 1.0 7.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.1 9.4 82.0 54.4 45.6 0.1 5.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.5 7.4 9.3 82.0 56.5 45.1 0.5 5.1 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.0 10.3 85.3 57.1 45.9 0.5 5.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.4 10.1 12.3 92.4 60.2 47.9 4.3 7.0 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.2 5.9 9.1 80.7 55.9 45.3 0.7 2.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 1.8 5.3 9.7 85.2 56.4 46.2 0.4 3.9 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.8 18.9 11.0 117.5 68.2 50.4 1.8 5.9 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.5 11.3 82.7 56.4 45.8 2.0 6.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.4 16.5 10.7 110.5 67.7 49.9 2.1 5.2 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.2 14.0 93.0 57.0 47.3 3.0 5.4 11.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.9 9.4 82.8 57.1 46.8 1.8 5.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.1 19.4 11.9 121.3 68.8 50.8 2.1 4.3 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.2 11.8 10.3 95.8 63.3 48.8 2.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.8 10.4 82.0 58.2 46.0 1.3 4.5 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.1 7.4 10.3 90.7 58.7 47.9 1.1 4.4 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.1 10.0 82.4 59.3 45.0 0.2 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 5.9 10.4 97.1 61.5 48.8 2.4 5.3 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.2 8.9 81.1 55.6 45.6 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 4.1 11.8 12.6 88.5 57.7 46.3 4.0 9.9 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.4 12.6 10.3 105.9 67.0 48.9 2.3 5.3 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------