***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.4 12.9 86.9 57.0 46.0 0.8 8.4 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.4 2.9 9.6 68.7 44.4 41.8 0.7 3.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.8 12.0 81.0 57.5 46.1 1.2 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.3 14.0 85.0 55.5 47.9 1.8 4.1 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.3 13.0 83.9 58.6 48.1 2.3 5.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.6 13.8 84.6 56.0 46.7 0.0 2.2 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.4 9.9 73.0 47.3 42.4 0.3 3.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.6 12.1 13.7 88.0 57.4 46.7 2.4 9.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.5 12.3 79.5 56.3 47.2 2.2 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.7 10.7 13.2 82.5 57.2 46.9 1.6 6.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.3 9.5 13.2 88.4 59.7 48.5 0.8 5.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.3 8.7 12.9 89.0 56.7 47.0 1.1 6.0 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 1.9 9.0 14.2 89.1 56.0 46.3 0.6 4.7 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 18.5 16.5 13.1 79.1 56.4 46.3 2.5 13.6 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.7 14.3 82.0 55.8 47.8 0.7 2.5 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.4 7.0 13.6 89.1 57.6 47.4 0.1 5.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.2 1.3 9.0 67.2 42.0 40.6 0.2 2.8 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.2 13.1 78.9 54.6 46.8 3.4 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.0 10.2 71.6 47.1 42.9 1.3 4.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.9 16.8 87.5 56.6 46.6 0.8 9.4 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.5 11.9 79.8 58.1 47.1 2.0 7.7 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 0.9 1.8 9.6 69.4 44.3 40.5 0.2 2.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.6 6.8 11.3 77.3 52.9 45.4 1.9 5.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.0 9.9 12.0 75.8 55.9 46.6 1.7 8.5 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.1 6.4 13.8 87.0 55.2 47.4 0.2 4.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.2 13.8 85.7 52.6 45.3 0.3 3.8 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.6 13.2 87.1 53.8 45.9 0.2 8.4 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.2 13.6 84.3 54.7 47.9 0.4 2.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 16.5 13.8 78.8 54.3 45.7 3.7 13.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.1 10.9 75.7 50.0 42.9 0.8 4.1 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------