***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.9 14.3 93.9 55.2 49.0 1.9 5.6 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.1 8.0 14.2 111.2 66.3 53.0 0.9 4.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.0 9.5 14.4 98.9 60.1 51.8 1.7 8.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.0 15.9 92.8 57.3 50.9 1.5 7.9 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.0 14.7 92.2 56.8 49.8 3.4 6.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.5 13.8 101.5 61.7 51.7 1.9 4.4 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.3 13.9 105.2 61.5 51.0 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.2 16.0 101.8 61.8 53.1 2.0 9.2 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.5 14.5 90.7 55.3 49.0 2.0 6.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.8 15.7 98.5 59.5 51.7 3.5 5.1 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.4 14.9 96.5 62.1 51.1 2.7 6.8 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.8 14.6 98.6 63.2 51.7 2.1 3.7 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.2 14.5 97.1 62.5 51.3 2.4 4.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.5 16.2 101.2 60.6 51.4 2.9 7.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.9 7.4 14.9 91.1 63.2 51.5 1.6 4.2 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.2 13.8 94.5 58.6 50.4 1.2 3.3 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.5 13.5 101.5 62.3 49.7 1.0 5.3 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.1 15.7 99.4 56.5 52.1 2.2 5.6 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.1 8.4 14.0 108.4 64.5 52.7 1.3 4.2 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.4 9.5 20.1 102.6 59.1 53.2 1.6 7.0 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.4 14.3 90.5 55.5 49.3 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.8 5.9 13.4 99.4 60.4 49.2 1.6 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.4 10.2 14.1 100.6 61.8 51.0 1.5 4.9 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.4 14.6 96.8 58.6 50.6 3.7 6.4 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.4 16.4 96.7 57.2 49.9 1.2 5.7 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.8 14.9 100.8 63.1 51.7 1.8 3.5 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.7 15.3 95.7 56.0 48.7 0.7 3.8 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.0 14.9 96.1 60.7 52.7 2.2 5.6 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.4 16.8 99.0 55.9 51.6 5.8 9.1 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.3 14.2 106.2 63.4 52.4 0.9 4.3 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------