***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 18.2 12.7 117.7 66.5 57.9 2.2 9.0 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.8 15.8 15.0 145.3 75.5 60.4 0.5 3.7 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 18.8 18.8 13.1 124.8 68.8 59.0 1.0 10.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.7 18.8 13.3 119.4 69.6 61.1 3.0 7.0 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.5 19.8 12.9 128.8 72.3 62.1 2.5 8.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.1 8.9 12.1 129.3 66.9 61.1 0.8 3.8 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 12.0 14.1 14.8 142.2 75.5 60.2 1.2 4.1 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.7 23.7 15.8 139.4 73.0 62.9 5.4 10.2 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.7 18.3 13.8 130.8 72.2 61.6 5.2 8.1 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.4 25.1 15.3 135.8 72.4 62.3 4.5 9.5 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.9 17.4 14.0 139.9 73.2 63.4 2.3 7.6 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.3 14.1 14.0 135.2 70.8 62.5 1.6 7.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.1 12.8 13.6 135.7 68.7 61.8 1.8 6.4 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.9 33.4 17.2 144.0 74.6 62.2 7.6 14.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 6.5 12.5 13.8 118.9 70.0 63.3 1.5 3.5 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.5 14.2 13.7 134.2 70.9 62.6 3.0 4.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.1 19.3 16.9 162.4 79.2 63.1 0.9 2.8 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 19.2 17.4 142.4 73.1 62.6 4.7 7.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 17.3 22.6 14.8 140.6 74.8 60.5 2.2 7.6 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.6 28.0 19.0 145.8 72.7 63.3 4.2 10.9 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.7 18.7 13.7 126.5 69.8 60.4 2.2 7.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.9 21.2 17.2 153.1 77.4 63.3 2.3 5.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.3 22.1 14.7 138.1 73.4 60.9 1.5 11.2 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.1 25.6 16.0 144.0 75.4 62.4 3.8 12.9 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.7 15.5 12.0 105.3 63.9 56.0 1.1 4.7 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 8.8 12.4 11.6 120.7 63.2 61.6 3.6 6.9 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.3 17.2 12.4 110.1 65.3 56.0 2.2 6.4 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 8.5 11.1 13.4 126.3 68.5 62.2 2.9 7.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.1 26.5 19.0 149.9 73.7 63.8 6.3 13.2 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 14.7 16.9 13.9 135.1 73.0 59.6 0.8 8.1 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------