***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 12.7 12.6 12.9 -1.5 20.7 27.7 13.2 14.6 15.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 12.5 12.1 13.1 -1.4 20.7 29.8 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 13.0 12.9 13.4 -1.4 23.5 30.2 13.8 14.8 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 6.3 5.8 9.9 -1.9 17.9 24.1 7.3 7.9 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 13.1 12.7 11.5 -1.7 19.2 27.1 13.8 14.8 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 12.6 13.2 10.8 -1.2 31.1 35.3 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 12.2 12.1 13.1 -1.3 21.2 30.2 12.8 13.6 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 5.0 5.4 11.0 -1.0 32.3 36.2 5.4 6.5 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 13.5 13.3 12.3 -1.5 22.5 30.2 14.0 15.2 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 13.1 13.2 11.7 -1.2 28.9 34.3 13.5 14.9 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 13.2 13.2 11.9 -1.4 24.1 30.6 13.7 14.9 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 12.8 13.3 11.5 -1.1 30.2 34.5 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 13.3 14.1 11.9 -1.0 34.2 36.5 14.0 15.1 16.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 13.4 13.9 13.1 -0.9 32.3 37.6 14.0 15.1 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 12.5 12.2 11.4 -1.6 20.6 26.7 12.9 13.4 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 13.7 14.0 11.6 -1.3 26.8 32.1 14.5 15.8 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 11.9 12.0 12.9 -1.2 23.2 31.4 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 12.2 12.7 11.6 -0.9 34.2 38.5 12.7 14.0 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.2 13.3 -1.3 22.5 30.8 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 10.1 11.4 10.1 -0.5 39.5 43.0 10.7 12.0 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 13.2 12.9 12.9 -1.5 20.5 28.7 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 12.4 12.3 13.0 -1.2 23.6 31.9 12.9 14.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.7 13.6 -1.1 26.7 33.6 13.2 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 13.6 14.0 12.8 -1.1 29.9 36.0 14.4 15.2 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.1 11.6 -1.7 20.2 26.3 12.9 14.1 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 12.9 13.8 11.2 -0.9 34.1 37.7 13.7 14.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 12.9 12.7 12.5 -1.5 22.0 28.9 13.6 14.7 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 12.4 12.0 10.7 -1.8 19.6 26.1 13.0 13.7 15.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 9.3 10.5 11.3 -0.7 37.3 41.6 9.9 11.2 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 12.5 12.1 13.1 -1.4 20.8 29.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------