***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.6 12.4 11.7 0.4 49.0 53.8 9.9 12.5 13.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 9.0 10.9 11.7 0.4 49.2 53.8 9.0 11.0 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.3 12.2 0.5 49.5 54.4 10.2 12.4 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.8 9.6 0.8 52.7 56.0 3.8 5.6 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.8 10.5 0.8 51.8 55.8 10.1 12.7 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.1 9.8 0.8 54.6 56.6 9.3 11.8 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.9 10.8 11.6 0.4 48.5 53.7 9.3 10.9 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.1 9.8 0.8 53.7 55.8 3.4 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.9 13.8 11.2 0.9 52.7 56.1 10.5 13.5 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.8 10.6 0.9 53.8 56.3 9.9 12.3 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 13.8 13.5 10.6 0.8 52.3 56.2 10.4 13.5 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.0 12.7 10.3 0.8 52.7 55.8 9.3 12.5 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.4 10.0 0.7 51.3 55.4 10.0 12.3 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.6 11.4 0.7 51.4 54.7 11.3 12.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.5 10.3 0.9 53.0 57.7 9.5 10.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.5 10.3 0.8 52.1 56.0 10.8 13.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 8.6 10.5 11.5 0.5 51.9 54.2 9.1 10.4 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.8 10.5 0.9 53.8 56.2 8.2 11.6 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 9.4 11.3 11.9 0.4 49.2 53.7 10.1 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.0 8.6 0.8 54.8 55.7 7.5 9.7 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.2 11.7 0.7 50.8 55.4 10.1 13.2 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.4 11.4 11.5 0.4 51.7 53.3 9.5 11.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.7 12.1 0.5 49.6 53.7 10.0 11.7 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.9 11.4 0.8 52.0 55.6 10.8 13.5 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.1 10.4 0.6 53.0 54.5 9.3 12.0 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.2 9.8 0.7 54.4 56.4 10.5 12.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 10.1 12.3 11.2 0.5 50.5 53.9 10.3 12.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.2 10.0 0.8 52.8 56.7 8.7 11.0 12.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.6 9.9 0.9 54.1 56.2 5.5 9.1 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.0 10.9 11.7 0.4 48.9 53.7 9.5 11.1 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------