***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.8 -0.7 37.0 43.8 10.9 13.9 15.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.1 12.9 -0.6 38.9 44.8 10.9 13.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 11.1 12.6 13.2 -0.6 39.4 45.0 11.3 14.0 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.5 7.3 10.3 -0.9 35.7 42.4 6.2 8.6 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 11.3 12.8 11.3 -0.9 36.7 42.9 12.0 14.4 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.5 12.9 10.7 -0.7 36.3 45.2 11.5 14.5 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.0 12.9 -0.7 39.3 44.5 10.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.7 6.0 10.8 -0.6 40.4 45.6 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 11.3 13.0 12.0 -0.7 37.8 44.1 12.3 14.2 16.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.1 12.2 11.4 -0.6 39.9 45.4 11.6 13.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 11.8 12.5 11.4 -0.8 37.1 43.2 12.0 14.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 11.5 13.1 11.2 -0.8 39.1 44.1 11.3 14.3 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 12.1 12.7 11.0 -0.8 36.4 44.3 11.5 14.4 16.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.8 12.5 -0.4 41.5 47.2 11.0 13.3 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.7 12.5 11.0 -0.8 36.4 42.6 12.3 13.0 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 12.7 13.2 11.1 -0.9 36.1 43.1 12.7 15.5 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.7 12.7 -0.6 39.8 45.2 10.3 13.2 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.6 11.4 -0.5 41.5 47.1 10.7 12.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.9 13.1 -0.6 39.5 45.4 11.2 13.8 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.4 11.6 9.6 -0.3 43.0 48.8 10.3 11.8 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 11.2 12.6 12.5 -0.8 36.2 43.6 11.8 13.6 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.6 12.7 -0.5 39.8 45.9 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.2 13.3 -0.5 40.7 46.5 10.7 13.4 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.7 12.4 12.4 -0.5 40.7 46.5 11.4 14.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.8 12.2 11.3 -0.8 36.3 42.6 11.3 13.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 11.9 13.7 10.9 -0.6 37.5 45.5 12.5 14.4 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 11.6 12.8 12.3 -0.8 37.1 43.2 11.9 14.6 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.8 12.5 10.7 -0.9 37.0 42.4 12.1 13.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.8 10.3 10.9 -0.4 41.6 48.1 8.0 11.3 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.8 11.6 12.9 -0.7 38.4 44.6 11.0 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------