***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 12.8 12.5 14.0 -1.8 27.6 32.6 13.0 15.9 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.2 -1.8 27.0 33.8 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 13.4 13.3 14.5 -1.8 28.6 34.5 13.8 16.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 5.9 5.3 10.8 -2.4 20.3 29.4 7.2 8.1 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 13.1 12.6 12.5 -2.1 24.8 32.3 13.0 15.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 12.5 12.4 11.7 -1.8 26.6 36.4 13.2 14.6 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 12.8 12.7 14.2 -1.7 28.7 34.1 13.1 14.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.8 6.3 11.8 -1.7 30.2 37.0 6.4 7.1 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 13.4 12.8 13.4 -1.9 27.8 34.2 13.5 15.8 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 13.1 12.5 12.5 -1.8 29.4 36.2 12.9 15.9 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 13.1 13.0 13.0 -1.9 26.8 34.8 13.3 15.9 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 13.1 12.7 12.3 -1.8 29.1 35.8 12.8 15.2 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 13.4 13.1 12.9 -1.7 28.7 36.9 13.7 16.0 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 13.2 13.5 14.0 -1.5 30.0 38.5 14.0 16.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 12.7 12.4 12.4 -2.2 22.4 30.0 13.4 15.0 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 14.2 13.6 12.6 -1.9 27.3 35.1 14.3 16.5 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 12.6 12.4 13.9 -1.6 25.9 35.1 12.8 13.9 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.2 12.3 -1.6 33.9 38.5 12.2 15.1 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 13.2 12.8 14.4 -1.7 28.1 34.7 13.3 15.4 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 9.5 11.3 10.7 -1.3 33.3 41.1 11.2 12.1 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 13.3 13.1 14.0 -1.9 27.2 33.7 13.3 16.1 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.2 14.1 -1.6 27.6 35.7 13.5 15.6 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.3 14.7 -1.6 31.5 36.8 13.4 16.0 17.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 13.5 13.3 13.8 -1.7 31.4 37.2 13.9 16.0 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 12.1 12.6 12.7 -2.0 26.0 31.7 12.8 15.2 16.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 13.3 13.5 12.0 -1.5 28.6 36.3 14.1 15.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 12.7 13.6 13.6 -1.8 28.6 33.4 13.6 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 12.3 11.5 11.6 -2.3 21.5 30.2 13.4 14.7 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 8.8 9.8 11.8 -1.4 34.1 40.2 9.8 10.9 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.2 -1.8 28.4 33.7 13.2 15.0 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------