***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 97 3 0 100 13.4 12.8 13.1 -4.0 13.1 15.0 14.9 17.0 18.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 13.4 13.0 13.7 -3.6 15.0 17.2 15.7 17.3 18.1 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 13.5 13.3 13.8 -3.8 17.0 17.1 15.5 18.4 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 7.2 5.8 9.1 -5.1 7.8 9.6 8.3 9.7 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 13.5 12.6 11.5 -4.4 13.3 13.5 15.6 18.2 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 14.3 14.2 11.2 -3.0 20.7 23.6 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 13.4 13.1 13.7 -3.4 17.4 18.3 15.2 17.7 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 6.5 6.1 11.8 -2.7 23.5 25.9 7.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 13.5 13.2 12.7 -4.0 15.2 15.1 15.9 18.0 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 13.6 13.8 12.2 -3.3 20.0 21.4 15.3 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 13.4 13.3 12.7 -3.7 17.6 18.3 15.7 17.8 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 14.2 14.6 12.3 -2.8 22.9 24.7 15.1 16.8 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 15.5 15.3 13.7 -2.3 27.5 28.3 16.3 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 14.9 14.6 14.3 -2.5 29.3 27.6 15.4 17.4 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 13.7 12.5 11.8 -4.3 9.5 11.6 14.5 16.2 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 14.9 15.1 12.4 -3.3 20.6 20.8 16.4 18.4 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 13.0 12.9 13.4 -3.3 18.7 18.5 15.0 16.2 18.0 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 13.5 13.8 12.2 -2.6 24.2 26.3 14.1 16.4 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 13.1 12.9 13.9 -3.5 17.9 18.6 15.2 17.6 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.1 11.7 -1.3 34.6 36.1 12.0 14.3 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 97 3 0 100 13.5 13.2 13.4 -4.1 15.4 15.0 15.5 18.3 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 13.6 13.2 13.9 -3.0 21.4 20.5 15.2 17.0 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 14.0 14.0 14.4 -3.0 24.6 22.6 15.4 17.4 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 14.4 13.9 13.7 -3.0 22.4 23.1 15.3 18.2 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 13.3 12.8 11.9 -4.4 13.8 13.9 15.5 16.6 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 15.4 14.8 12.2 -2.1 29.2 30.3 15.9 17.7 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 13.7 13.6 12.8 -3.8 16.3 16.8 15.8 17.5 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 13.7 12.5 10.5 -4.7 9.9 11.5 14.6 17.2 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.8 10.6 12.4 -1.8 31.6 32.7 10.6 13.4 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 13.3 13.0 13.6 -3.7 14.9 16.6 15.7 17.7 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------