***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.7 4.1 6.9 -0.5 41.4 42.4 3.8 4.9 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.0 4.1 6.6 -0.2 46.7 46.0 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.6 6.3 6.9 -0.4 43.7 43.5 5.8 6.5 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 0.4 0.7 4.0 -0.5 37.1 39.8 0.6 1.3 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.8 3.4 5.0 -0.3 41.0 43.8 2.9 3.6 4.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.6 3.1 -0.2 38.7 47.1 2.5 2.9 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.1 4.0 6.7 -0.3 47.4 44.7 3.7 4.1 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.6 -1.0 3.6 0.1 51.0 52.1 -1.3 -1.0 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.3 5.4 0.0 45.2 48.8 4.0 4.5 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.1 4.3 0.1 49.8 51.3 3.8 4.1 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.1 3.8 4.7 -0.1 44.4 47.1 3.0 3.9 4.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.1 2.7 4.1 -0.1 43.5 48.1 2.6 2.8 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.1 4.1 0.0 43.4 49.1 2.8 3.3 3.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.3 4.9 5.5 0.1 52.4 52.0 4.6 4.8 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.3 3.6 5.3 -0.3 38.8 43.1 3.2 4.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.2 4.1 -0.2 40.7 46.0 4.0 4.5 5.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.4 6.5 -0.2 49.1 46.6 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.8 3.8 0.1 50.8 51.5 2.6 2.8 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.2 6.6 -0.2 46.6 46.6 3.7 4.4 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 0.5 0.4 2.8 0.4 56.8 56.6 -0.7 0.2 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.0 6.4 -0.3 41.4 44.3 3.8 4.2 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.7 6.5 -0.2 46.8 46.2 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.4 6.7 -0.1 49.3 48.2 3.7 4.4 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.9 5.3 0.0 50.1 50.0 3.5 3.9 4.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.1 5.8 -0.5 39.1 41.2 4.0 4.5 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.7 3.5 3.8 0.0 46.1 50.5 3.1 3.5 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.1 6.5 -0.4 42.2 42.8 3.7 4.7 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.1 4.3 -0.4 37.2 42.1 1.9 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.6 3.5 0.4 54.9 55.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.5 6.7 -0.3 45.7 44.6 4.0 4.5 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------