***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.3 5.4 0.3 51.4 53.0 1.9 3.1 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.1 5.0 0.3 48.9 53.9 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.5 5.3 0.3 49.4 53.5 3.4 4.6 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.0 -0.5 2.9 0.5 53.0 55.0 -2.0 -0.6 0.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 2.5 2.4 3.4 0.5 56.0 56.1 0.3 1.7 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 2.3 2.0 1.6 0.4 52.3 55.0 -0.4 1.6 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.6 2.4 5.1 0.3 48.2 53.7 1.8 2.4 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -1.0 2.0 0.5 54.3 56.2 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.8 3.9 0.6 55.5 56.7 1.5 2.5 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.3 2.7 0.6 54.1 56.8 1.3 1.8 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.8 3.0 0.5 53.6 56.0 0.9 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 1.8 1.4 2.4 0.4 53.7 55.1 0.1 1.2 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 2.4 1.7 2.1 0.4 52.2 54.2 0.9 1.7 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.2 3.5 0.3 48.7 53.8 2.4 3.2 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.3 3.8 0.5 53.3 54.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.2 2.5 0.4 52.0 55.0 2.1 3.1 4.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.8 5.0 0.4 50.8 54.5 1.6 2.7 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.7 2.1 0.6 52.2 56.1 -0.1 0.6 2.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.4 5.0 0.3 49.4 53.7 2.0 2.5 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.5 0.8 0.5 52.3 56.1 -3.0 -1.6 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.4 4.8 0.4 51.4 54.6 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.6 2.0 4.8 0.3 49.3 54.0 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.1 4.9 0.3 51.1 53.4 1.7 2.0 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.2 3.4 0.4 51.9 54.9 1.3 2.1 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.0 2.4 4.2 0.3 50.5 52.8 1.2 2.3 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 2.7 2.1 2.0 0.4 54.7 56.3 0.4 2.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 0.9 2.9 5.0 0.3 51.6 53.1 1.8 2.5 5.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.4 0.9 3.0 0.5 53.1 56.0 -0.4 0.7 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.8 1.7 0.5 52.1 55.8 -0.5 0.6 1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.4 2.7 5.1 0.3 49.0 53.4 2.1 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------