***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.4 6.0 -1.0 36.9 40.7 2.7 5.1 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.2 5.8 -0.8 39.1 42.5 1.7 4.4 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.0 6.1 -0.9 37.3 42.1 4.2 6.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -2.0 -0.1 3.6 -0.6 38.7 43.3 -0.3 0.8 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 0.5 1.5 4.0 -0.7 36.3 42.6 1.3 3.8 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -0.2 0.9 2.4 -0.7 38.2 44.2 0.7 2.0 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.0 5.8 -1.0 35.4 41.0 1.8 4.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -2.4 -1.3 2.6 -0.7 35.0 44.1 -1.4 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.1 4.5 -0.7 36.5 43.2 1.7 4.7 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.4 3.2 -0.7 35.3 44.0 2.3 3.9 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 0.4 2.1 3.5 -0.7 35.8 43.0 2.1 2.9 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 -0.3 1.1 3.0 -0.8 34.0 43.0 0.9 2.2 3.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 -0.5 1.0 2.7 -0.8 32.7 42.5 1.0 1.4 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.1 3.8 4.4 -0.7 39.0 44.2 2.9 5.1 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.6 3.3 4.5 -0.5 42.4 44.4 2.3 4.6 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 1.3 2.4 3.1 -0.7 33.6 43.0 2.3 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.8 2.8 5.7 -0.8 36.2 42.2 2.6 4.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 0.2 1.0 2.8 -0.7 36.6 44.4 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.5 5.8 -0.7 40.0 43.1 2.1 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -2.3 -1.2 1.4 -0.6 37.9 45.6 -2.4 -0.5 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.5 2.2 5.5 -0.9 35.2 42.0 1.8 4.5 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.4 5.6 -0.7 38.3 42.8 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.1 5.8 -0.7 39.4 43.6 2.4 4.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.1 4.2 -0.7 37.3 43.6 1.7 3.9 5.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.1 2.5 4.9 -0.9 38.8 41.3 1.9 4.5 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 0.5 1.4 2.6 -0.7 38.3 43.3 1.1 2.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.4 2.9 5.6 -1.0 36.8 40.7 2.1 4.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -0.1 1.1 3.7 -0.5 39.7 44.2 0.5 2.8 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.1 1.2 2.3 -0.7 37.0 44.9 0.2 1.9 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.2 5.9 -0.9 37.8 41.8 2.1 4.8 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------