***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.9 7.7 -0.8 40.7 41.3 3.1 4.6 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 3.7 7.3 -0.7 43.7 42.6 3.1 4.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.3 5.9 7.7 -0.7 41.7 41.8 5.3 6.2 8.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 0.3 0.3 4.8 -0.8 37.6 40.4 0.0 2.3 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.3 3.4 5.9 -0.7 39.2 42.6 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.4 2.9 3.8 -0.6 41.6 43.4 1.5 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.2 7.3 -0.8 42.9 42.1 2.9 4.2 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -1.9 -1.4 4.2 -0.4 40.7 46.1 -1.6 -0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.3 4.0 6.1 -0.5 40.7 44.5 3.7 4.5 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.4 4.2 4.9 -0.4 40.7 45.5 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.1 3.8 5.5 -0.5 40.4 44.6 3.0 4.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 1.1 2.8 4.8 -0.6 39.1 44.3 2.3 3.5 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 1.7 3.0 4.6 -0.6 37.2 42.9 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.7 6.0 -0.4 42.4 45.5 3.8 5.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.2 6.2 -0.6 38.3 42.1 2.8 4.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.9 4.8 4.9 -0.6 38.5 43.2 4.1 5.1 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.9 7.1 -0.7 43.1 43.1 2.8 4.2 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 1.4 2.9 4.4 -0.4 43.2 46.0 2.0 3.1 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.5 3.9 7.3 -0.7 43.7 42.6 2.7 4.5 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -1.8 0.3 3.2 -0.2 41.7 48.0 -1.0 0.5 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.1 7.2 -0.7 40.4 42.5 2.8 4.7 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.1 7.1 -0.8 42.4 42.0 2.5 3.6 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.7 4.0 7.3 -0.6 43.5 43.6 3.0 4.8 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.5 5.9 -0.5 42.8 45.1 3.4 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.6 6.7 -0.9 39.9 41.1 3.9 5.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.3 3.4 4.4 -0.5 37.9 44.2 2.4 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.5 4.7 7.3 -0.8 41.0 41.4 3.4 5.5 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.4 1.9 5.1 -0.7 39.1 41.3 1.6 3.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 1.2 2.4 3.9 -0.2 44.3 47.8 1.4 2.9 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.3 4.2 7.5 -0.8 43.6 42.2 3.1 4.5 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------