***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 5.8 5.5 8.4 -0.2 43.2 45.6 5.4 5.7 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 5.6 5.7 8.4 0.3 52.8 52.3 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 8.3 7.9 8.5 -0.2 46.0 46.3 7.3 8.1 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.5 2.2 4.6 -1.2 35.0 34.8 2.2 3.1 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 5.3 4.7 6.6 -0.5 41.2 42.3 4.3 5.1 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 4.4 4.1 4.7 0.3 48.4 51.0 3.7 4.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 5.7 5.6 8.4 0.2 49.5 50.9 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.9 1.2 5.8 1.1 60.1 60.3 0.0 0.6 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 94 6 100 6.0 5.9 7.3 0.4 51.8 52.7 5.1 5.8 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 6.0 6.2 6.3 0.9 56.2 57.3 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 5.6 5.2 6.7 0.1 47.6 48.4 4.0 5.4 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 4.7 4.5 6.2 0.5 50.8 52.9 3.3 4.4 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 5.3 5.6 6.7 1.0 56.5 58.6 3.9 5.1 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 6.3 6.8 8.0 1.3 65.5 63.8 5.6 6.1 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 5.7 5.1 6.8 -0.4 39.4 41.2 4.9 5.5 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 6.1 5.9 6.0 0.0 45.8 47.9 5.3 5.9 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 5.8 5.7 8.2 0.4 51.8 52.5 5.1 5.7 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 5.1 5.1 6.0 1.0 56.4 58.9 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 5.7 5.8 8.5 0.4 54.6 53.9 5.2 5.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.3 2.6 5.7 2.1 70.8 71.6 0.8 1.8 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 5.8 5.5 8.0 -0.2 45.3 45.9 4.9 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 4.8 4.9 8.5 0.4 54.5 53.3 4.2 4.7 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 5.6 5.9 8.7 0.7 59.1 57.8 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 5.4 5.8 7.6 0.8 56.9 57.6 4.6 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 6.5 6.0 7.5 -0.6 41.0 41.5 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 5.5 5.6 6.3 1.0 57.5 59.4 4.3 5.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 6.4 6.0 8.2 -0.1 44.6 46.2 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 4.3 3.6 5.3 -0.8 37.2 38.3 3.4 3.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 5.2 4.8 6.1 1.8 68.7 69.2 3.2 3.9 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 6.2 6.1 8.5 0.1 50.8 49.9 5.3 6.1 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------