***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 17.7 20.2 31.0 60.4 23.8 27.1 24.8 35.1 52.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 16.1 17.3 31.0 67.3 26.4 29.7 19.4 41.0 46.6 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 19.8 19.6 31.0 61.4 22.8 27.5 26.9 39.9 49.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 22.9 23.9 32.6 59.1 27.7 28.6 30.3 44.6 53.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 24.7 25.3 32.4 61.4 28.7 29.1 28.0 39.5 49.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 14.8 14.4 29.5 56.9 24.5 25.8 22.8 33.5 37.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 17.1 15.7 31.0 66.5 27.3 30.0 19.8 27.6 45.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 31.1 28.0 37.3 63.9 28.8 30.5 30.8 52.7 71.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 22.0 20.9 33.6 62.5 26.9 29.1 26.7 36.1 47.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 26.7 23.5 37.2 64.2 27.3 30.0 28.1 45.3 56.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 20.9 20.7 32.3 61.1 27.7 29.1 23.2 32.2 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 17.6 22.0 32.0 61.1 28.2 29.5 22.4 29.0 49.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 23.2 26.1 31.9 59.2 28.6 27.6 29.6 38.9 47.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 32.1 32.6 39.2 66.6 25.1 28.9 43.3 57.4 68.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 13.4 15.4 32.2 58.7 29.3 30.2 15.6 26.8 37.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 19.2 18.5 31.0 60.0 28.1 28.5 22.1 31.2 41.4 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 17.3 19.9 32.7 71.0 30.8 32.2 20.1 26.6 66.0 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 30.4 30.5 40.8 66.7 27.2 30.2 31.5 43.4 48.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 17.6 19.1 31.2 67.1 25.6 29.7 30.0 39.2 52.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 30.3 31.8 49.6 67.1 28.0 31.1 35.9 53.5 76.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 18.8 17.8 31.6 60.7 25.7 27.8 22.0 36.4 47.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 20.7 21.8 34.8 72.2 30.0 32.6 24.9 38.6 58.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 19.9 23.6 31.9 65.5 25.3 29.4 31.6 44.5 61.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 25.8 32.4 36.9 65.6 26.3 29.3 36.0 45.9 51.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 13.8 12.0 33.6 59.6 23.3 27.0 17.5 31.3 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 18.1 24.0 30.7 57.2 22.8 26.7 30.0 36.7 42.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 13.9 15.0 32.5 60.6 23.5 27.2 21.2 35.3 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 16.5 13.2 30.3 58.2 28.0 29.2 16.3 34.8 41.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 44.1 45.2 44.1 67.4 26.7 30.4 49.0 57.8 72.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 15.7 19.1 30.5 64.2 24.4 28.4 23.6 32.3 45.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------