***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 7.1 11.1 85.6 53.3 40.9 2.8 6.7 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.4 11.5 9.9 86.3 55.6 40.0 2.2 6.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.8 10.5 11.3 89.3 56.4 41.8 2.6 8.1 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 9.8 11.3 81.1 52.0 43.0 1.8 8.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.7 11.0 80.6 51.9 42.6 1.8 6.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.2 11.1 10.2 81.1 55.1 43.9 1.0 6.0 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.2 8.9 10.0 84.8 56.8 40.6 1.1 7.9 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.8 13.3 11.0 74.2 50.1 41.5 3.9 13.3 23.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.0 8.9 11.6 83.5 53.2 42.5 1.1 8.3 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.1 9.5 11.7 79.4 51.9 42.1 1.6 7.8 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.9 10.2 77.4 52.3 42.6 0.7 6.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.6 9.7 74.0 50.7 42.2 1.2 6.6 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.9 11.5 10.3 77.3 51.8 42.6 0.6 11.5 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.8 15.3 13.1 85.7 54.2 40.9 4.7 10.1 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.6 11.5 83.1 56.5 45.0 0.7 6.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.4 10.0 78.3 52.0 43.5 1.5 6.0 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.1 6.3 9.9 86.0 55.0 41.6 1.5 5.3 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.8 7.4 12.6 80.7 51.4 41.2 2.1 7.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.5 9.4 10.3 88.3 54.9 40.3 1.5 6.9 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.9 10.1 14.3 72.6 48.2 39.3 4.0 10.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.4 8.5 11.5 86.9 54.8 42.9 2.5 6.4 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.1 9.1 10.7 86.8 55.8 40.7 1.7 5.6 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.6 9.0 11.0 89.4 54.1 41.0 2.1 8.0 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.5 12.4 87.7 54.4 42.3 2.0 7.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.9 12.0 82.9 52.5 41.3 1.2 4.8 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.5 9.9 72.1 47.8 41.7 0.2 6.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.3 6.2 11.4 83.1 53.3 40.9 1.7 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.4 4.3 10.4 80.0 54.0 44.6 0.5 2.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 4.5 11.4 13.2 78.1 50.9 40.2 4.2 11.0 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.8 10.3 85.9 54.8 40.2 2.5 6.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------