***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.4 6.4 8.6 63.7 44.9 39.7 0.9 8.2 11.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.9 6.5 8.9 78.0 51.9 44.0 0.4 4.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.6 8.2 62.3 48.0 39.6 0.6 5.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.7 10.7 75.2 53.6 41.8 1.3 4.9 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.4 10.3 74.7 53.7 41.5 0.4 4.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 1.0 2.4 9.4 72.5 47.4 39.1 0.1 2.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.8 4.8 9.2 79.2 52.6 44.4 0.2 4.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.5 12.4 82.1 54.1 43.1 1.3 8.6 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.6 10.1 69.9 50.8 40.3 0.0 5.4 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.1 7.8 11.5 75.1 51.5 41.8 0.6 7.6 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.9 10.5 77.9 54.1 42.0 0.3 6.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 2.4 7.6 10.8 81.6 55.4 42.4 0.4 5.9 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.8 3.8 10.3 77.0 50.7 41.4 0.1 3.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.5 10.9 71.4 51.3 41.1 3.8 10.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.8 2.4 10.8 74.0 53.8 42.7 0.2 2.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.4 6.1 10.1 78.3 54.1 42.7 0.0 3.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.2 4.2 9.9 85.0 54.5 44.1 0.2 2.7 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.1 8.2 12.0 73.3 48.9 41.2 2.9 8.6 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.7 8.7 75.1 52.2 43.3 0.6 4.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.5 16.5 82.7 51.7 42.9 1.0 7.2 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.4 8.9 65.2 47.8 39.5 0.3 7.5 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 0.9 4.8 10.0 81.7 53.6 43.0 0.2 1.8 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.5 6.3 8.6 70.4 51.6 41.9 1.9 5.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.9 9.0 10.1 68.2 49.4 40.1 1.7 9.1 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.3 10.1 69.3 48.1 40.8 0.6 3.9 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.0 10.5 75.9 49.3 40.4 0.3 3.0 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.9 9.3 66.9 46.6 40.2 0.4 6.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 0.9 2.8 10.2 75.2 54.2 42.0 0.4 2.3 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 15.3 13.3 75.6 49.2 41.5 3.3 15.5 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.1 8.5 70.4 48.3 42.2 0.8 4.3 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------