***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.6 9.6 77.8 52.1 42.8 2.0 4.8 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 5.2 9.7 85.3 53.5 43.5 0.9 3.1 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.8 9.8 77.9 49.5 42.6 2.0 5.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.1 9.3 9.2 69.0 50.0 39.8 1.7 9.4 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.2 9.6 73.0 48.9 39.1 1.7 6.3 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 1.5 4.0 8.7 67.5 50.2 37.7 0.8 3.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.3 3.5 9.6 83.3 51.3 43.3 1.2 3.0 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.4 9.4 11.9 83.0 52.6 42.6 1.4 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.4 10.4 78.9 51.0 41.8 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.0 6.3 12.0 85.2 53.6 43.0 2.1 4.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.4 10.0 71.7 46.5 37.4 2.0 4.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.0 2.9 9.9 73.9 49.1 38.6 1.4 3.0 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.8 9.8 72.0 50.0 38.2 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.9 12.8 87.5 53.0 45.3 2.7 7.5 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.6 4.1 8.8 66.9 49.8 37.8 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.2 3.0 9.4 71.4 49.6 38.8 1.0 3.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.3 10.2 89.3 55.3 44.2 0.7 3.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.5 7.8 13.9 95.3 57.4 46.0 2.1 6.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.8 9.9 86.0 53.8 44.3 1.4 4.1 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.8 8.7 16.1 91.2 56.2 44.5 1.4 7.1 9.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.2 5.0 9.6 75.3 48.7 40.6 3.2 5.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.2 10.8 90.4 55.1 45.0 1.2 3.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.8 10.4 85.8 52.8 45.3 1.6 5.3 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 2.5 7.0 12.3 88.0 53.0 45.6 2.6 7.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.4 9.9 71.1 48.1 39.5 1.0 4.2 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.1 3.0 9.3 68.3 46.0 35.7 1.3 3.5 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.7 4.2 10.0 76.1 50.5 41.1 0.8 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.3 8.5 68.0 50.6 39.1 1.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 11.4 15.1 95.3 56.3 45.9 5.2 9.5 15.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.7 4.5 9.5 80.1 50.6 42.6 0.7 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------